Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-25-11

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Lower as Markets Disappointed by EU Summit

Euro dips mildly as markets are disappointed by the lack of concrete agreements from the EU highly touted EU summit. Domestic political considerations in Finland and Germany are believed to be factors that delayed finalization of the details of a plan to boost the lending capacity of the EFSF to June. Small change regarding the ESM were made while the "Euro-Plus Pact", a watered-down version of the controversial "competitiveness pact" pushed by Germany and France, was also agreed. But nothing more. Nevertheless remains in range against the greenback and is also firm against sterling and swiss franc so far.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4080; (P) 1.4150 (R1) 1.4246; More.

EUR/USD dips mildly in early US session as consolidations from 1.4247 continues and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Consolidations could continue further but even in case of deeper retreat, downside downside should be contained above 1.3751 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4247 will target 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term falling trend line (now at 1.4292). Sustained break there will have medium term bullish implication and should pave the way to 1.5143 resistance next.

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conomic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
-- EUR EU Summit in Brussels
-- --
23:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI Y/Y Mar -0.30% -0.30% -0.40%
23:30 JPY National Core CPI Y/Y Feb -0.30% -0.30% -0.20%
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb -1.00% -1.10% -1.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Feb 2.00% 1.70% 1.50%
09:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Mar 111.1 110.6 111.2 111.3
09:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Mar 115.8 114.6 114.7
09:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Mar 106.5 106.8 107.9
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q4 F 3.10% 3.00% 2.80%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Mar F 67.5 68 68.2
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 81.00

Although the greenback has retreated after intra-day rebound to 81.38, as long as intra-day support at 80.87 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for test of 81.75, break there would confirm our view that correction from 82.00 has ended at 80.51 and bring a retest of said resistance at 82.00. Looking ahead, only above the latter resistance would retain bullishness and signal upmove from last week's low at 76.25 has resumed

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 0.9720

Although the greenback has fallen again after this week's bounce to 0.9843 and marginal weakness to 0.9710/20 cannot be ruled out, if our view that a temporary low has been formed at 0.9667 is correct, downside would be limited and bring another rebound later. Above this week's high at 0.9843 would suggest the retreat from 0.9974 has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for rebound to 0.9900

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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