Exchange rate Euro to Dollar

Better than expected German Ifo data supported exchange rate Euro to Dollar to edged higher in  European session on Nov 24-2014.
German Ifo business climate rose to 104.7 in November versus expectation of 103.0. Current assessment gauge rose to 110..0 versus expectation of 108.0. Expectations gauge rose to 99.7 versus consensus of 95.5. The gauges ended six straight months of decline. Ifo noted that "the downturn in the German economy has ground to a halt for the moment at least." Ifo economist noted that it's too early to confirm a change in trend but the results was nonetheless a "positive signal".

It  affected the exchange rate Euro to Dollar to move higher.



In the exchange rate Euro to Dollar, offers at 1.2405-10 were filled but sell orders are still noted from 1.2420 all the way up to 1.2450, more sellers are reported exchange rate Euro to Dollar at 1.2465-70 and 1.2490-00.
Exchange rate Euro to Dollar shows selling interest is seen at 1.2530-40, 1.2570-80 and in good size at 1.2600 with more stops placed above 1.2605.
On the downside of exchange rate Euro to Dollar, bids are raised to 1.2370-75 and 1.2355-60 with more stops placed below barrier at 1.2350, more buy orders are expected at 1.2300-10 and 1.2275-80, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.2250.

ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said that Q1 of year would be "too early" for additional easing from the central bank. Meanwhile, he hailed that the European Commission is "setting the right priorities by proposing an investment package combined with regulatory reforms targeted toward fostering smart infrastructure, education, research and energy."

Factors affecting exchange rate Euro to Dollar.

  • The advance GDP growth for 3Q14, due Tuesday, should stay largely unchanged at +3.5% saar. While consumption and inventories might be revised higher, these should be offset by downward revisions to exports and construction. The Conference Board consumer confidence index, also due Tuesday, should remain near last month's post-recession high of 94.5. On Wednesday, the final estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment would be released, together with personal income and consumption data for October. Meanwhile, durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims report and October pending home sales would also be released on Wednesday.

  • In Europe, we will get the Eurozone's flash CPI report on Friday. Headline inflation probably slipped to +0.3% y/y in November while core inflation stayed unchanged at 0.7%. The ECB's money and credit data for October and the EC economic sentiment index would be due Thursday. In the UK, we would have the second GDP reading for 3Q14 on Wednesday. In Asia, the BOJ would release the meeting minutes later today. On Friday, a number of October economic data, including CPI, IP, employment, household spending and construction data for the third largest economy would be released. Let us see the effect of it on the exchange rate Euro to Dollar.

Andy Haldane the BOE chief economist still cheered by UK business activity.

 Andy Haldane the BOE chief economist still cheered by UK business activity.

 

Andy Haldane the BOE chief economist

 Andy Haldane the BOE chief economist has given an interview to The Observer following his speech to businesses on Friday, where he said " I am gloomier" and called for a later rather than earlier interest rate hike. The comments caused a fall in the pound before recovering.

 He says that markets had been a little slow to take in the picture of weaker global growth, heightened geopolitical and financial risks and benign inflationary pressures. What we have seen over the past week is financial markets catching up with the data. Possibly overreacting to the data but certainly catching up, because I think there has been a drip drip drip – globally I mean – of slightly below-par news for several months. He feels market players are right to push back the chances of a rate rise to later in 2015. This is a big change from the summer, when some were talking about a move as soon as November. The data can move things around quite a lot… They have, and it has been in one direction Haldane is also concerned, however, with how those outside the financial markets are supposed to interpret such mixed headlines.

The Bank, he said, was also grappling with the question of why it is that growth is strong, unemployment is falling and inflation is low – yet many people are worse off than at the start of the financial crisis. The Observer has the full article here (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/19/andy-haldane-bank-of-england-struggles-with-stance-on-economyarkets-manufacturing) http://assets.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Haldane1.png Haldane- gloomy but still optimistic I don't expect this to have a major impact on GBP opening levels but it shows that Haldane does still see reasons for being a bit cheerful at least, and this may provide some support

Dollar Mildly Lower after Weak CPI, FOMC Awaited


ActionForex.com

Markets Snapshot

Dollar Mildly Lower after Weak CPI, FOMC Awaited

Dollar drops mildly in early US session after weaker than expected inflation data. But loss is so far limited as markets await FOMC policy decision. Headline CPI slowed to 1.7% yoy in August versus expectation of 1.9% Yoy. Core CPI also slowed to 1.7% yoy, versus expectation o 1.9% yoy. Later today, FOMC is expected to reduce a further USD 10b in the QE program, leaving a final USD 15b which will be removed at the October meeting. We expect to see the statement modified to signal clearly that the QE would end in October. The biggest question is whether FOMC would change the language in the accompanying statement to reflect that rate hike is nearing. To be specific, Fed noted that rates would stay near zero for a "considerable time" after QE ends. And markets are wondering if Fed would drop "considerable time" and vote pattern for such change or not. Fed will also release updated economic projections. There could be upward revision in GDP forecast and downward revision in unemployment rate.
Full Report Here...

jpyvol.png
nzdusdpiv.png
Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6186; (P) 1.6249; (R1) 1.6336; More...
GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6350 so far today as the recovery from 1.6051 continues. Outlook remains unchanged though as such recovery is viewed as a correction only. While further rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.6534 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6161 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6051 first. Break will extend the decline from 1.7190 through 50% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6002 to 61.8% retracement at 1.5721.
Read more...
    Economic Indicators Update
    You're invited to London's most comprehensive educational event for investors and traders of the year; The World MoneyShow London, 7-8 November 2014! Located at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre, you will discover top experts' best money-making and capital preservation strategies! Learn from the industry's top experts' like Mark Mobius, Ralph Acampora, Sandy Jadeja, and dozens more!

    US and Canadian equity markets trading near all-time highs amid record-low volatility has many pointing to a sense of "complacency" in the markets, like it's possible that the "easy money" has already been made. That's why 40+ leading investing and trading experts will be speaking LIVE and in-person at The World MoneyShow Toronto, and will reveal their latest and best stock and ETF picks in the process. Register free
    GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
    22:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q2 -1.07B -1.04B 1.41B 1.47B
    00:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Aug -0.10% -0.10%
    08:30 GBP BoE Minutes
    08:30 GBP BoE Official Bank Rate Votes 2--0--7 2--0--7 2--0--7
    08:30 GBP BoE Asset Purachse Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
    08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Aug -37.2K -29.7K -33.6K -37.4K
    08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Aug 2.90% 3.00%
    08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jul 6.20% 6.30% 6.40%
    09:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Sep -7.7 2.5
    09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% -0.70%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug F 0.40% 0.30% 0.30%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Aug F 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%
    12:30 USD CPI M/M Aug -0.20% 0.00% 0.10%
    12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Aug 1.70% 1.90% 2.00%
    12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Aug 0.00% 0.20% 0.10%
    12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Aug 1.70% 1.90% 1.90%
    12:30 USD Current Account Balance Q2 -99.5B -$115.0B -$111.2B -102.1B
    14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 59 56 55
    14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.0M
    18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
    Orders and Options Watch

    US Session: Orders and Options Watch

    EUR: The single currency remained confined in narrow range, offers at 1.2960 were filled but sell orders are still seen at 1.2975-85 and 1.3000, more offers are noted at 1.3025 (stops above), 1.3035 and 1.3050-60, selling interest is expected at 1.3085, 1.3100-10 and 1.3035. On the downside, bids remain at 1.2920-25 and 1.2900-10, buy orders are still seen at 1.2885-95 and 1.2850-60 (stops below), buying interest is tipped at 1.2825, 1.2800 and 1.2785, fresh demand is expected at 1.2750 and 1.2725, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.2700.
    Read more...
    Forex Trade Ideas

    Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9290

    Although the greenback has rebounded again after yesterday's brief fall to 0.9300 and gain to 0.9360 cannot be ruled out, break of 0.9373-80 is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed for a retest of last week's high at 0.9396, above there would extend headway to 0.9417 (61.8% projection of 0.9126-0.9336 measuring from 0.9287 and 50% projection of 0.9176-0.9380 measuring from 0.9315) but loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 0.9440-50
    Read more...

    Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3010

    Although the single currency retreated after yesterday's brief rise to 1.2995, near term upside risk remains for the erratic rise from 1.2859 to bring retracement of recent decline to 1.3000-10 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3160-1.2859) before prospect of another retreat, below 1.2920-25 would bring test of 1.2909 but a sustained breach below latter level is needed to signal the rebound from 1.2859 has ended and bring further weakness to 1.2880-85, then retest of 1.2859


    Eurozone M3 money supply annual growth +0.8% vs +1.1% exp





    More from the orderboard 28 May

     

    By Mike Paterson on May 28, 2014 04:42 am


    Ryan off again today so forgive me if I don't get chance to chat in the comments as much as I/you would like/need USDCHF currently 0.8976 looking well supported still but approaching good resistance/offers so we'll see what happens Sellers 0.8985 0.9000 (stops above) 0.9025 0.9040-50 Buyers 0.8960 0.8945 0.8935 0.8925 0.8900 0.8885 EURCHF currently 1.2227 ditto the above[DEL: :DEL] Sellers 1.2235-40 1.2250 1.2265 1.2280 (stops above) Buyers 1.2215 1.2200 1.2185-75 1.2165 1.2150-40 USDCAD currently 1.0856 and still supported by corporate bids from 1.0835 Sellers 1.0875 1.0900-10 1.0925-30 1.0945 1.0975-85 Buyers 1.0835 1.0810-0800 1.0785 NZDUSD currently 0.84[DEL: 98 :DEL] 95 and still on the back foot after poor data and solid AUDNZD buying. 20th March 0.8502 lows and 0.8500 bids now breached Sellers 0.8525 0.8550 0.8585 0.8600-10 Buyers 0.8475 0.8460 0.8440


    Eurozone M3 money supply annual growth +0.8% vs +1.1% exp

     

    By Mike Paterson on May 28, 2014 04:03 am


    * +1.0% prev revised down from +1.1% * prvt loans -1.8% vs -2.1% exp vs -2.2% prev * M3 3-month moving average 1.0% vs 1.1% prev revised down from +1.2% Bank lending still contracting overall Euro still stuck at 1.3620, 0.8123 and 138.70 on the data. Talk of good size EURUSD barrier at 1.3600 providing some bids



    German unemployment change May sa +24k vs -15k exp

     

    By Mike Paterson on May 28, 2014 03:55 am


    * unemployment total nsa 2.882 mln vs 2.8 exp vs 2.9 mn prev * sa 2.905 mln vs 2.881 mln prev revised up from 2.872 mln * unemployment rate 6.7% as exp/prev Euro a tad lower on the weaker than expected data * West German unemployment rose by 16,018 * East German unemployment rose by 7,919 http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/German-unemployment-change.jpg German unemployment change



    EURJPY orders 28 May

     

    By Mike Paterson on May 28, 2014 03:50 am


    Currently 138.73 near session lows and right on decent bids Sellers 139.00 139.15 139.35-40 139.50 140.00 Buyers 138.70 138.50 138.00 137.85 137.50




    China's MOF says it will speed up budget spending to support economic growth

     

    By Mike Paterson on May 28, 2014 03:16 am


    The Ministry of Finance said it will speed up budget spending to support economic growth. In a statement, the finance ministry said downside pressure on the economy remains and the difficulties shouldn't be underestimated. It said the process of fiscal spending is relatively slow and much funding remains unspent. The Finance Ministry urged all its local branches to speed up the approval, transfer and spending of budget funds to boost growth and adjust the economy's structure. MNI reporting

    BOJ reports FY2013 operating profit of JPY 1.28 trillion

     

    By Mike Paterson on May 28, 2014 03:14 am


    * net income JPY 724.5 bln * BOJ transfers JPY 574.94 bln to govt * transfers JPY 144.8 bln to legal reserve, 20% of net income * BOJ capital ratio 7.74% BOJ out with its 2013 statement



    EURGBP orders 28 May

     

    By Mike Paterson on May 28, 2014 03:00 am


    Currently 0.8123 on the rise again as traders anticipate the usual month-end buying. Offers now exhausted between 0.8115-20 but more on the horizon which may well coincide with the strong cable support at 1.6770-75 that I've just highlighted Sellers [DEL: 0.8115-20 :DEL] 0.8125 0.8135 0.8150 0.8160 Buyers 0.8100 0.8080-85 0.8070 0.8050 0.8035 0.8000


    French producer prices April -0.1% vs -0.4% prev

     

    By Mike Paterson on May 28, 2014 02:45 am


    French consumer spending April mm -0.3% vs +0.3% exp vs +0.6% prev revised up from +0.4% EURUSD a tad lower at 1.3627


    Trading Ideas – European session 28 May

     

    By Mike Paterson on May 28, 2014 02:37 am


    Ok good people, it's time for the community singalong again It's Wednesday and I feel a scrappy day ahead as we start to lead into some month-end flows How about you ? What's on your own orderboards ? IFRAME: [1]http://www.youtube.com/embed/8DGvJSuoI3A?feature=oembed References 1. http://www.youtube.com/embed/8DGvJSuoI3A?feature=oembed





    Dollar rallies against the Japanese yen

    ActionForex.com






    Action Insight Market Overview
    Markets Snapshot
    Dollar Surges Against Yen Despite ISM Manufacturing Miss
    Dollar rallies against the Japanese yen in early US session even though ISM manufacturing index missed expectations. Though, the greenback is steady elsewhere as the movement is mainly triggered by yen's own weakness. US equities open higher with S&P 500 now heading back to its historical high. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 53.7 in March but was below consensus of 54.0. Improvements were seen in production and new orders. However, it should be noted that the employment component dropped to 51.1, down from 52.3, which is a negative factor for Friday's NFP. Also released in US session, US construction spending rose 0.1% mom in February. Canadian IPPI rose 1.0% mom in February while RMPI rose 5.7% mom.
    https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.actionforex.com%2Fresources%2Fdata%2Feurusdchart.png&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*
    jpyvol.png
    nzdusdpiv.png
    Featured Technical Report
    USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
    Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.86; (P) 103.15; (R1) 103.50; More...
    The rebound from 101.20 is still in progress and could extend higher. As note before, price actions from 105.41 are viewed as a correction pattern, with those from 100.75 as the second leg. Current development argues that such second leg isn't completed yet. Further rise could be seen above 103.75. But in that case, we'd expect strong resistance below 105.41 to limit upside and start the third leg. Meanwhile, below 102.68 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 101.20 and then 100.75 low.

    Economic Indicators Update


    GMT
    Ccy
    Events
    Actual
    Consensus
    Previous
    Revised
    23:50
    JPY
    Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1
    17
    19
    16

    23:50
    JPY
    Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1
    24
    25
    20

    01:00
    CNY
    Manufacturing PMI Mar
    50.3
    50.1
    50.2

    01:45
    CNY
    HSBC/Manufacturing PMI Mar F
    48
    48.5
    48.5

    03:30
    AUD
    RBA Rate Decision
    2.50%
    2.50%
    2.50%

    07:30
    CHF
    SVME-PMI Mar
    54.4
    56.7
    57.6

    07:45
    EUR
    Italian Manufacturing PMI Mar
    52.4
    52.2
    52.3

    07:55
    EUR
    German Unemployment Change Mar
    -12K
    -10K
    -14K
    -15K
    07:55
    EUR
    German Unemployment Rate Mar
    6.70%
    6.80%
    6.80%
    6.70%
    08:00
    EUR
    Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F
    53
    53
    53

    08:00
    EUR
    Italian Unemployment Rate Feb P
    13.00%
    12.90%
    12.90%

    08:30
    GBP
    PMI Manufacturing Mar
    55.3
    56.5
    56.9
    56.2
    09:00
    EUR
    Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb
    11.90%
    12.00%
    12.00%
    11.90%
    12:30
    CAD
    Industrial Product Price M/M Feb
    1.00%
    0.70%
    1.40%

    12:30
    CAD
    Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb
    5.70%
    2.30%
    2.60%
    2.80%
    14:00
    USD
    ISM Manufacturing Mar
    53.7
    54
    53.2

    14:00
    USD
    ISM Prices Paid Mar
    59
    59
    60

    14:00
    USD
    Construction Spending M/M Feb
    0.10%
    0.10%
    0.10%

       
    Orders and Options Watch
    US Session: Orders and Options Watch
    EUR: The single currency continued to move higher and offers at 1.3810 were filled but sell orders are still noted from 1.3820 up to 1.3850 (stops above latter level), mixtures of offers and stops are located at 1.3870 and 1.3900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3785, 1.3750-65 and in good size at 1.3725-35, more buy orders are reported at 1.3695-10, buying interest is tipped at 1.3660-70 with bigger stops placed below 1.3650.
    Forex Trade Ideas
    Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 102.70
    Although the greenback has rebounded again, break of yesterday's high of 103.44 is needed to signal recent rise from 101.21 has resumed and extend gain towards previous resistance at 103.76, having said that, as broad outlook remains consolidative, upside should be limited and price should falter below 104.00. If said resistance continues to hold, then further consolidation is in store and another corrective fall to 102.80 cannot be ruled out
    Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6600
    As the British pound has retreated after holding below yesterday's high of 1.6684, suggesting minor consolidation would bee seen but downside should be limited to 1.6597-00 and bring another rise, above said resistance would extend the rise from 1.6460 to 1.6700 and possibly test of resistance at 1.6718, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond latter level