Dollar Index Pressing Head and Shoulder Bottom Neckline as Risk Sold-off on Eurozone Debt Crisis Again


ActionForex.com

Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Dollar Index Pressing Head and Shoulder Bottom Neckline as Risk Sold-off on Eurozone Debt Crisis Again

Dollar strengthened across the board last week as risk aversion dominated the markets on a serious of bad news from Europe, including poor bond auctions, surging yields and downgrades. DOW, FTSE and DAX all suffered sharp selloff and the developments turned near term outlook bearish and raised the prospect of new 2011 low before the year closes. A few weeks ago, we talked about the remote possibility of head and shoulder bottom formation in the dollar index and the index is now pressing the neckline resistance. Among the major currencies, Aussie was the weakest on deteriorating economy outlook in China. But Euro was taking up the weakest spot towards the end of the week.
Full Report Here...

jpyvol.png
nzdusdpiv.png
Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD dropped further to as low as 1.3212 last week and the development suggests that decline from 1.4246 is possibly resuming recent fall from 1.4939. Initial bias remains on the downside for 1.3145 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 100% projection of 1.4548 to 1.3145 from 1.4246 at 1.2843 next. On the upside, above 1.3229 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited by 1.3421/3614 resistance zone and bring another fall.
Read more...
Suggested Readings
The Week in Review and Preview

Merkel, Sarkozy consider bypassing EU Commission to force new euro treaty



Link to ForexLive

Posted:
Germany and France want to force through a new “euro stability treaty” by the start of new year, according to Germany’s Bild newspaper.
Posted:
Some good euro zone news for a change.
Posted:
Stephen Fidler at the WSJ.
Posted:
Happy Dayz.
Posted:
“The prediction, to be published on Monday, is the first from a respected forecaster to indicate that Britain faces a double-dip recession” (excuse me, second if you don’t mind, my barber as usual was way ahead of the curve)

Euro Dives Further after Italian Auction


ActionForex.com

Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Euro Dives Further after Italian Auction

Euro extends it's decline against other major currencies after Italy's bill auctions. While Italy still managed to sell the maximum target of EUR 8b of six-month T-bills, yields was sharply higher at an euro era record of 6.504%, comparing to 3.535% in last auction in October. Bid-to-cover ratio was at 1.47, showing weaker demand than prior auction with 1.57 bid-to-cover ratio last month. Yields on both two- and five-year bonds jumped to new euro era high in the secondary markets, at 7.70% and 7.80% respectively. 10-year yield also stays above the 7% level and move further to 7.28%. While in the long run, the 7% level is seen as unsustainable to Italy, the strength is the shorter term yields is even more worrying for Italy to rollover debts. And it should be noted that Greece, Ireland and Portugal all have 10 year yield above 7% and inverted yields before seeking bailouts.
Full Report Here...

jpyvol.png
nzdusdpiv.png
Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3304; (P) 1.3358 (R1) 1.3399; More.
EUR/USD's decline is still in progress and reaches as low as 1.3225 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall from 1.4246 is still in progress for retesting 1.3145 low. Break will extend the whole decline from 1.4939 through 1.3 psychological level towards 1.2872 support next. On the upside, above 1.3320 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But strong resistance should be seen from 1.3421/3614 resistance zone and bring another fall.
Read more...
Economic Indicators Update
Top trading expert speakers, analysts and exhibitors. Discover the Newest Comer to the market, analyze latest market trends explore different trading platforms, and explore a wide opportunity on future investments. The 9th ME Forex & Investment Summit 2011

Don’t miss this year’s World MoneyShow London, 11-12 November 2011 at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit—in 2011 and beyond. Don't miss out... Register Free Today!

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Oct -0.50% -0.30% -0.40%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Nov -0.10% -0.10% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Oct 0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 0.00%
7:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Oct -0.30% -0.20% 0.60%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency tumbled today on surging European bond yields, stops below option barriers at 1.3300 and 1.3250 were triggered, more stops are tipped below 1.3200 with bids from U.S. big names and option players reported above this level, more buying interest from Asian sovereign names are likely to emerge around 1.3140-50. On the upside, offers from various parties are lined up from 1.3270 up to 1.3300 and more selling interest is seen at 1.3320 and 1.3350.
Read more...
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.85

As dollar has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting a retest of this week’s high of 77.58 would be seen, however, a break of this resistance is needed to add credence to our bullish view that low has been formed at 76.58 last week and bring a stronger retracement of recent decline from 79.55 to previous resistance at 77.89 later but still reckon price would falter below another resistance at 78.27, bring retreat later.
Read more...

Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.9615

As aussie has retreated again after recovering to 0.9785 yesterday, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the decline from 1.0753 top (a leg top) to extend to 0.9645-50 (100% projection of 1.0753-1.0051 measuring from 1.0351), however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9610-15 and bring rebound later. Above said level would suggest low is possibly formed and bring rebound to 0.9840-50
Read more...
Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights

US oil up, Brent down



Link to ForexLive

Posted:
Greece looking for a better deal in haircut negotiations RTRS source: Eurozone may ditch plans for private ESM involvement, Germany softening on eurobonds S&P downgrades Belgium to AA from AA+ on financial sector risks ECB’s Mersch says 1yr refinancing a problem at European banks; ECB could take action but not yet RTRS: Eurozone official says ECB won’t [...]
Posted:
A great deal of instant analysis will be written about Black Friday shopping in the US and with the data schedule light on Monday there is a chance it could be the main theme on Monday. My feeling is that it’s extremely difficult to get a clean reading on the numbers. First, the level of [...]
Posted:
It looks like it’s curtains for the FX market. CAD had a small pop and drop but nothing else is moving. Stocks, bonds and futures are closed now with two hours left in FX. The only thing I can think of that might awaken the market is a change in the US credit outlook from [...]
Posted:
WTI gains $0.60 to $96.77 Brent down $1.38 to $106.40. The spread is getting back to more normal levels. The resilience of WTI has been impressive, down just $0.64 on the week, despite broad risk aversion. The weekly chart looked ready for a reversal last Friday but less-so now.
Posted:
Belgian finmin: S&P rating cut makes 2012 budget deal urgent
Posted:
ROME (MNI) – Structural and fiscal reforms planned by Italy’s new government are a “step in the right direction” and more reforms are expected in the future, EU Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said on Friday. “This package of reforms is a positive step in the right direction, but I expect that more [...]
Posted:
S&P 500 down 0.23% to 1159 Down 4.7% on the week
Posted:
Downgraded one notch to AA on financial sector risks, outlook remains negative It was initially reported as Fitch but corrected to S&P S&P says downgrade reflects risks due to funding and market pressure risks stem from likelihood growth will slow
Posted:
There’s still a chance for some of the main FX pairs to break out of their daily ranges. Cable just pushed below 1.5450 USD/JPY traders are covering on fears of Sunday MOF intervention
Posted:
BERLIN (MNI) – German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager and Finnish Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen said Friday at a joint press conference here that they favor an increase of the role of the IMF in the Eurozone debt crisis. “We need to build up the firewall and today we [...]
Posted:
S&P 500 back in negative territory at 1161 after climbing has high as 1172 in the early going. Relentlessly negative market right now. Comments from European leaders consistently lack the urgency the market is looking for.
Posted:
As I mentioned earlier, US stocks close in an hour so we won’t have the usual lunchtime lull. The CFTC COT report has been delayed until Monday so the docket is scraped clean for the week.
Posted:
LONDON (MNI) – The European Central Bank will take more steps to enhance market liquidity if it needs to do so but at present it does not believe it is required, Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said. Speaking to reporters here Paramo said “If we need to do more we will” adding “this is [...]
Posted:
Reuters is on fire today with the exclusives. They’re now citing a eurozone official saying if yields continue to rise and EFSF leverage fails, more ECB involvement could be the only immediate response. Also saying tighter fiscal integration could give the ECB the green light for bond intervention.
Posted:
FRANKFURT (MNI) – ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said Friday that contagion from the Greek debt crisis had now spread to the core of Europe and was even eroding the credit-worthiness of Germany. In the text of a speech delivered in London, Paramo said: “There is a growing body of evidence which shows [...]
Posted:
Eurobonds are not acceptable to us, fin min says An increased role for the ECB could be considered if there are no other options
Posted:
Greeks drive hard bargain as creditor talks start This is the aforementioned article.
Posted:
European stocks avoided a 10-day losing streak. FTSE 100 +0.6% DAX +1.1% CAC-40 +1.2% Spain IBEX +0.4% Portugal PSI +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% (big comeback from the lows)
Posted:
So it was Germany, Holland and Finland after all but the comments are, so far, nothing. German fin min says agreed in talks with Dutch and Finnish counterparts that limited EU treaty changes needed. Dutch fin min says favors enhanced IMF role
Posted:
Reuters is running some headlines from a source about Greece stepping outside the IIF to talk to creditors about harsher terms on the bond swap. Could get ugly. Should weigh on EUR. The Greeks are demanding that the new bonds’ Net Present Value, — a measure of the current worth of their future cash flows [...]