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Mid-Day Report: Euro Weakens on Spain Downgrade, Dollar ReboundsEuro weakens sharply today after Moody's cut Spain's credit rating by one notch to Aa2 with a negative outlook. The rating agency said that risks to public finances are "skewed to the downside." Also, Moody's projected that the cost of re-capitalizing Spanish banks would be near EUR 40-50b, comparing to government's expectation of EUR 20b. Moody's slashed Greece's rating by three notches to B1 and warned of further cut on Monday. Eurozone debt crisis came back into spotlight ahead of EU summit tomorrow. Markets are concerned that the summit seem unlikely to resolve the differences among leaders over the size and scope of the long term comprehensive package proposed by Germany and France. Nevertheless, note that Euro's weakness is so far limited as expectation for an ECB hike in April is still providing some support. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 82.56; (P) 82.74; (R1) 82.92; More. USD/JPY's break of 83.02 indicates that rebound from 81.57 has resumed and intraday bias is back to the upside for 83.96 resistance. Nevertheless, note that recent price actions from 80.29 are treated as sideway consolidations. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 83.96 to limit upside and eventually bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 82.56 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 81.57 and below. Further break of 80.93 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption. |
| pecial Reports |
RBNZ Cut -50 Bps, More Than ExpectedThe RBNZ cut the OCR by -50 bps to 2.5% in March, more than we and the market had anticipated. Policymakers believed that the earthquake 'has caused substantial damage to property and buildings, and immense disruption to business activity' and 'it is clear that economic activity, most certainly in Christchurch but also nationwide, will be negatively impacted. Business and consumer confidence has almost certainly deteriorated'. The central bank expected that the emergency low level of interest rates will need to be removed 'once the rebuilding phase materializes'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9365As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone on dollar's broad-based strength, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 0.9269 to extend gain towards 0.9370, however, as outlook is still consolidative, price should falter below previous resistance at 0.9392 and bring retreat later. Below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9303) would suggest top is possibly formed, break of intra-day support at 0.9283 would bring weakness to yesterday's low at 0.9269 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Turn short at 115.00The single currency has fallen again after meeting renewed selling at 115.27 today, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 116.00 last week and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement of recent upmove to 113.70-80, break there would bring stronger correction to minor support at 113.10 but reckon support at 112.54 would hold form here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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