Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-17-11

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Jumps on Decent Spain Auction, Yen Consolidates after Spike

Euro resumes recent rally against dollar today as lifted by successful bond actions by Spain. Spain sold EUR 4.1b of 10-year and 30-year bond today at average yield of 5.162% and 5.875% respectively. Yield were both down from 5.2% and 5.975% set in prior auctions. Demand was solid with bid-to-cover ratio for 10 year bond at 1.81 comparing to 1.54 last month. The results suggests that the EU agreement on competitive pact was well received by the markets.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3842; (P) 1.3921 (R1) 1.3977; More.

EUR/USD's break of 1.4035 resistance indicates that recent rally has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should now be seen towards 1.4281 resistance, which is close to medium term trend line at around 1.43 level. On the downside, break of 1.3751 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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Special Reports

SNB Pauses Again. Raises Growth And Inflation Forecasts

As widely expected, the SNB left the 3-month Libor target at 0-0.75%. Although the growth momentum has remained robust, inflation pressures have been mild. Moreover, strength in Swiss franc has offset the effects of accommodative monetary measures, hence reducing the needs for tightening. Policymakers also raised growth and inflation forecasts higher than 3 months ago.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jan 2.10% 1.40% -0.80% -0.90%
06:45 CHF SECO March 2011 Economic Forecasts



08:15 CHF Industrial Production Q/Q Q4 7.40% 4.60% 1.80% 1.40%
08:30 CHF SNB Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jan 13.3B 10.36B 9.63B
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jan 1.50% 0.50% 0.80%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Feb 0.50% 0.40% 0.40%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Feb 2.10% 2.00% 1.60%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Feb 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Feb 1.10% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 385K 388K 397K 401K
13:15 USD Industrial Production Feb -0.10% 0.60% -0.10%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Feb 76.30% 76.50% 76.10%
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Feb
0.90% 0.10%
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Mar
30 35.9
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
-41B -71B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9130

Dollar's near term sideways trading is expected to continue and as long as 0.8965-70 holds, near term upside risk remains for the rebound from intra-day low of 0.8853 to bring retracement of recent decline to 0.9085 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9316 to 0.8853) but price should falter well below previous support at 0.9140 and bring another decline later. A break of indicated level at 0.8965-70 would suggest the rebound from 0.8853 has ended

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3960

As the single currency has retreated after intra-day resumption of upmove to 1.4053, minor consolidation below this level would take place and pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3984) is likely, however, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3960, just below 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3869 to 1.4053 at 1.3961) would attract renewed buying interest, bring another upmove later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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