Action Insight Daily Report 3-18-11

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Reverses on G7 Intervention

Yen is sharply lower today after G7 finance leaders pledged to jointly intervene in the forex markets for the first time in a decade following 90 minutes teleconference. Finance Minister Noda said it's " extremely significant that G7 authorities agreed to act in concert and co-operate for the stability of the markets." The ministry sold yen through BoJ for the first time since September and pushed USD/JPY through 81 level. BoJ Governor Shirakawa said that the bank "strongly expects that Japan's concerted action with G-7 member countries in the foreign-exchange market will contribute to the stable formation of foreign-exchange rates".

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 76.92; (P) 78.33; (R1) 80.29; More.

USD/JPY's rebound from 76.40 extended further to as high as 81.88 on intervention. But still upside is limited below 84.49 resistance and there is no confirmation of reversal. More consolidative trading would be seen between 78.25 minor support and 84.49. As long as 84.49 resistance holds, we'd still favor another fall eventually. Below 78.25 should send USD/JPY through 76.40 low.

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Special Reports

G-7 Engages in Joint Intervention, Short-term Positive for USDJPY and JPY-Crosses

Japanese yen fell from a post-war high against the US dollar after G-7 countries pledged to have joint intervention on the currency market. This is the first joint intervention since September 2000 when the Group bought the euro as it slumped in the second year of existence. The collaboration would be helpful if the Group manages to weaken the yen.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised


G7 Meeting



0:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Feb 38 47 47 48
7:00 EUR German PPI M/M Feb
0.70% 1.20%
7:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Feb
6.30% 5.70%
8:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Feb
0.40% 0.10%
8:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Feb

0.00%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan
-10.6B -13.3B
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jan
-2.5B -2.3B
11:00 CAD CPI M/M Feb
0.40% 0.30%
11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Feb
2.30% 2.30%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Feb
0.4? 0.00%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Feb
1.1? 1.40%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4000

Despite intra-day brief drop to 1.3980, as the single currency has surged on active cross-buying against Japanese yen, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 1.4100 would be seen, however, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.4140/50 and reckon 1.4190/00 would hold from here, bring correction later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 80.50

This morning's rally after the G7 agreed to jointly intervene in the FX markets to stop yen's strength signals a medium term low has been formed at 76.25 earlier this week and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain towards resistance area at 82.31-47, however, break there is needed to add credence to this view and extend the rise from 76.25 towards 82.90/00 and eventually towards resistance at 83.30.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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