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Daily Report: EUR/USD Firm ahead of Non-Farm Payroll, Strong Numbers AnticipatedDollar remains soft against Euro as market's focus are turning employment data from US. Markets are expecting Non-farm payroll to show 183k expansion in February with unemployment rate edged back up to 9.1%. Leading indicators to NFP were generally positive. Employment component of both ISM indices continued recent up trend with that for manufacturing index rose to 64.5 and that for non-manufacturing rose to 55.6 in February. Both were at multi-year high readings. Four week moving average of initial jobless claims dropped to 388.5k, lowest since July 2008 and was the first time it's below 400k level since then. ADP private job data also beat expectation by rising 217k in February. An upside surprise in today's NFP number is possible. US conference board consumer confidence also rose to three year high of 70.4 in February which suggests lower unemployment rate ahead. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 81.93; (P) 82.23; (R1) 82.73; More. As noted before, USD/JPY's fall from 83.96 should have completed at 81.57 already. Consolidation from 80.29 is still in progress with another rising leg just started. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 83.96 resistance. Though, strong resistance is expected there to limit upside and bring another fall. On the downside, below 81.57 will flip bias back to the downside for 80.93/81.12 support zone. |
| Featured Technical Report |
Trichet Signals Tightening Begin Next MonthWhile the ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% at the March meeting, it will likely begin tightening next month as signaled by President Trichet. Staff projections on growth and inflation were revised higher in this year and next. The Euro rallied to almost a 4-month high against the US dollar amid rate hike speculations. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sent a message to the market that the Fed will keep QE2 until expiry and does not rule to further easing. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9250Despite intra-day marginal rise to 0.9332 (yesterday's high was 0.9329), lack of follow through buying suggests consolidation would take place and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9283) is likely, however, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9243) would limit downside and bring another leg of corrective upmove later for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 0.9350/55 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3850As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally suggests recent upmove is still in progress and further gain towards psychological resistance at 1.4000 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 1.4050/60 would hold from here, bring correction later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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