Action Insight Daily Report 2-1-11


ActionForex.com


Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Soft on Commodities, Aussie Rebounds after RBA

Dollar is back under pressure with the dollar index breaching last week's low of 77.60 to resume recent decline. Strong rally was seen in commodities on Egypt turmoil as the CRB index jumped 1.78% overnight, or 5.98 pts to close strongly at 341.42. WTI crude oil rose sharply to two year high and is staying firm above 92 level. Among major currencies, Sterling is the relatively stronger one as supported by BoE Weale's hawkish call for rate hike. On the other hand Australian dollar is the strongest currency today so far as supported by strong house price data and as RBA toned down the impact of flood to economy.

Full Report Here...


jpyvol.png
nzdusdpiv.png

Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9896; (P) 0.9942; (R1) 1.0020; More

AUD/USD rebounds strongly to as high as 1.0036 so far today buy after all, it's still staying in range of 0.9803 and 1.0075 and outlook remains unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more sideway trading might be seen. But another fall is still in favor as long as 1.0075 resistance holds. Break of 0.9803 support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.0254 and will also affirm the case of medium term reversal. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 0.9536 support for confirmation. On the upside, however, break of 1.0075 will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 1.0254 high instead.

Read more...


Special Reports

RBA Leaves Cash Rate Unchanged, Expects Limited Impacts From Flooding

The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a second consecutive meeting after raising it for 7 times since October 2009. Policymakers appeared more optimistic towards the global economic outlook. Tightening bias remains and the central bank will probably hike interest rates again in 2Q11. Currently, the market has priced in a 16% chance the RBA will hike rates in June, up from +12% before the meeting.

Read more...

Economic Indicators Update


This is the ultimate opportunity to meet face-to-face with industry leaders, test out the hottest products and software, and pick up trading ideas and strategies you can implement immediately to increase your percentage of profitable trades! The New York Traders Expo.


GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Dec -3 -- 6
0:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q4 0.70% -0.20% 0.10% -0.30%
1:00 CNY PMI Manufacturing Jan 52.9 53.5 53.9
3:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
8:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Dec
-- 2.50%
8:30 CHF SVME PMI Jan
59.2 59.6
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jan
-10K 3K
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jan
7.50% 7.50%
8:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Jan
60.2 60.2
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Jan
56.9 56.9
9:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Dec
47.0K 48.0K
9:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Dec
0.30% -0.80%
9:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Dec
-- -1.40%
9:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Jan
57.9 58.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Dec
10.10% 10.10%
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index Jan
57.9 57
15:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Jan
73.5 72.5
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Dec
0.10% 0.40%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 82.40

As the greenback has fallen again after brief recovery yesterday, intra-day breach of yesterday's low at 81.77 signals recent fall from 83.70 is still in progress and may extend weakness to 81.50, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 81.10-20 and reckon support at 80.93 should hold, bring rebound later.

Read more...

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Stand aside

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally, suggesting a retest of last week's high at 1.3760 would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.3790/00 but near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3850 and risk has increased for a retreat later.

Read more...

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


FOREXYARD Daily forex analysis

FOREXYARD Daily Forex Analysis

 "> 01-Feb-2011




" style="display: none;" class="print"> Headlines
*EUR Remains Bullish Despite Egyptian Turmoil

The euro was able to stay above the 1.3700 level against the US dollar in overnight trading, as analysts are predicting a hike in euro-zone interest rates in the near future. The anticipated hike outweighed investor concerns regarding the prolonged Egyptian turmoil, which had sent riskier assets like the euro down earlier in the week.


Start Trading
" valign="middle" border="0"> Demo Account
" valign="middle" border="0"> SuperMini Account
" valign="middle" border="0"> Standard Account

Live Chat

Print

Archive

" valign="middle" border="0"> 31-Jan-2011

" valign="middle" border="0"> 28-Jan-2011

" valign="middle" border="0"> 27-Jan-2011

" valign="middle" border="0"> 26-Jan-2011

" style="display: none;" class="print"> Market Trend
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYUSD/CHFAUD/USDEUR/GBP
Daily TrendUp Up Down Down Up No
Weekly TrendUp Up Down Down Up Down
Resistance1.40051.641582.760.95791.01880.8742
1.38361.618882.410.94981.00650.8654
1.37631.610082.220.94681.00180.8601
Support1.35941.587381.870.93880.98950.8513
1.34971.573381.710.93380.98190.8477
1.33281.550681.360.92570.96960.8389




"> Economic News




USD


USD Tumbles in Overnight Session


The US dollar turned bearish late last night, as rumors began circulating that the euro-zone may raise key interest rates in the near future. The anticipated move caused investors to flock to riskier assets like the euro and sterling, largely at the expense of the greenback. The EUR/USD was once again able to move above the psychologically significant 1.3700 level, after having fallen as low as 1.3570 during yesterday's session. Currently the pair stands at 1.3716. The GBP/USD shot up close to 60 pips in the overnight session before staging a slight correction. Currently the pair stands at 1.6045.

Today, dollar traders will want to pay close attention to this month's US ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled to be released at 15:00 GMT. The manufacturing industry has proven to be a significant indicator of American economic health. For today's figure, analysts are predicting a result of around 57.8, which if true would signal industry expansion, albeit less than in December. Assuming the PMI comes in as predicted, the dollar may see some short term gains in the afternoon session.

In addition, traders do not want to forget that this is Non-Farm payrolls week. Wednesday's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls figure are going to inject a substantial amount of volatility into the marketplace. Do not miss this unique opportunity for large profits following the news.


EUR


EUR Trading Mixed Against Main Currency Rivals


An anticipated euro-zone interest rate hike caused the EUR to turn bullish against the safe haven dollar and yen throughout the day yesterday. That being said, the euro was not able to maintain its gains against the Japanese currency in the overnight session. The EUR/JPY has begun correct itself, and has already fallen close to 30 pips since late last night. Currently the pair is trading just above the 112.40 level.

Against the UK pound, the euro was decidedly bearish throughout the day yesterday. The EUR/GBP dropped close to 80 pips yesterday, and has yet to stage a significant upward correction. Currently the pair is trading close to the 0.8550 level.

Today, traders will want to pay particular attention to the UK Manufacturing PMI, scheduled to be released at 09:30 GMT. The PMI is forecasted to say that there was expansion in the British manufacturing sector last month. Should the PMI come in at its anticipated level of 58.0, the euro could move down further against sterling in the morning session today.


JPY


Yen Maintains Bullish Trend


The JPY has been largely able to recover from last week's surprise sovereign debt rating downgrade, and the USD/JPY pair is once again trading below the 82.00 level. The pair had gone as high as 82.14 during the evening session last night, but ultimately turned bearish as investors chose the safe haven yen amid all of the uncertainties in Egypt.

Against the euro, the yen tumbled during yesterday's session, but started to stage a recovery overnight. Currently the EUR/JPY is trading at 112.44, down almost 30 pips from late last night.

Today, a lack of significant Japanese news means that the yen will likely move based on the manufacturing data set to be released out of the UK and US. A positive indicator from either the UK or US may lead to renewed risk taking among investors, which would likely cause the yen to turn bearish today.


OIL


Crude Oil Flat Following Bullish Session Yesterday


After shooting up more than $4 yesterday, crude oil traded relatively flat in the overnight session. Oil's bullish behavior was attributed to the turmoil in Egypt, which has threatened to spread throughout the Arab world. Investors are still fearful that further political unrest in the Middle East may hamper oil production. As such, the price of oil went from as low as $88.34 a barrel yesterday, to as high as $92.30. Currently the commodity is trading at $91.86.

Today, traders will want to keep up with any news from Egypt. Further unrest is likely to drive the price of oil higher. At the same time, the sooner the Egyptian government is able to quell protests and reinstate a level of calm in the country, the sooner the price of oil will likely stabilize.


"> Technical News




EUR/USD


The Bollinger Bands on the 8-hour chart appear to be tightening, indicating that a price shift is likely to occur in the near future. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is in overbought territory, indicating that the shift may be downward. Traders are advised to go short with their positions today.


GBP/USD


The Williams Percent Range is currently well into the overbought zone on the daily chart, indicating that a downward correction may occur today. In addition, the Relative Strength Index on the 8-hour chart is also overbought. Going short may be the wise choice today.


USD/JPY


The Stochastic Slow on the 8-hour chart has formed a bullish cross, indicating that an upward correction is likely to occur in the near future. The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart is currently at the -90 level, giving further support to the theory of upward movement today. Going long with tight stops may be the preferred strategy today.


USD/CHF


Most technical indicators on the hourly chart show this pair range trading, indicating that no specific direction is being predicted at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself later today.


"> The Wild Card




GBP/CHF


The Bollinger Bands on the 8-hour chart appear to be narrowing, indicating that a price shift is likely to occur soon. The Williams Percent Range on the same chart is currently in overbought territory, and a bearish cross appears to be forming on the 4-hour chart's Stochastic Slow. All signs are pointing to a downward correction, giving forex traders an excellent opportunity to open up short positions for potentially significant profits.


" style="display: none;" class="print"> Indicators
2011-02-0100:30:00AUDHPI q/q0.1%-0.3%***
2011-02-0100:30:00AUDNAB Business Confidence
6-***
2011-02-0101:30:00JPYAverage Cash Earningsy/y0.2%0.9%***
2011-02-0102:00:00NZDANZ Commodity Pricesm/m2.0%-*
2011-02-0103:30:00AUDCash Rate
4.75%4.75%*****
2011-02-0103:30:00AUDRBA Rate Statement
*******
2011-02-0105:30:00AUDCommodity Prices y/y47.7%-***
2011-02-0107:00:00GBPNationwide HPIm/m0.4%-0.3%*****
2011-02-0108:15:00CHFRetail Sales y/y1.8%2.6%*****
2011-02-0108:30:00CHFSVME PMI
59.659.3***
2011-02-0108:55:00EURGerman Unemployment Change
3K-11K***
2011-02-0109:00:00EURFinal Manufacturing PMI
56.956.9*
2011-02-0109:00:00USDItalian Monthly Unemployment Rate
8.7%8.7%**
2011-02-0109:30:00GBPManufacturing PMI
58.358.0*****
2011-02-0109:30:00GBPNet Lending to Individualsm/m0.7B0.6B***
2011-02-0109:30:00GBPFinal Mortgage Approvals
40K47K*
2011-02-0109:30:00GBPM4 Money Supplym/m-0.8%0.3%**
2011-02-0110:00:00EURUnemployment Rate
10.1%10.1%***
2011-02-0115:00:00USDISM Manufacturing PMI
58.557.8*****
2011-02-0115:00:00USDConstruction Spending m/m0.4%0.1%*
2011-02-0115:00:00USDISM Manufacturing Prices
72.573.6*
2011-02-0116:15:00EURECB President Trichet Speaks
*****
2011-02-0116:30:00CHFGov Board Member Jordan Speaks
*****
2011-02-0119:30:00CADGov Council Member Macklem Speaks
***
2011-02-0123:50:00JPYMonetary Base y/y7.0%7.6%**





Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-31-11


ActionForex.com


Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Rebounds on Strong CPI Reading

Euro rebounds strongly today after CPI flash estimate beat expectations and accelerated to 2.4% yoy in January, highest level in more than two years. Based on recent inflation rhetoric from ECB Trichet, the stronger than expected inflation reading triggered more speculation that ECB would normalize rates sooner than previously thought. CPI is now above ECB's target of "below 2%, close to 2%" for the second month in a row and there is no sign of moderation yet. Markets are expecting a possible hike in Q4 but ECB might pull ahead if inflation outlook worsens. Though, after all, EUR/USD's is still kept below 1.3757 recent high on concern of continuation of Egypt protest.

Full Report Here...


jpyvol.png
nzdusdpiv.png

Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3547; (P) 1.3646 (R1) 1.3710; More.

EUR/USD drew strong support from 4 hours 55 EMA and rebounds today but upside is still limited below 1.3757 resistance. Intraday bias is neutral and some more consolidations could still be seen. Below 1.3570 will bring another fall but after all, we'd expect strong support above 1.3245 and bring rally resumption. As discussed before, whole decline from 1.4281 should have finished with three waves down to 1.2873 already. Above 1.3757 should bring another rise through 1.4 psychological level to retest 1.4281 key resistance first.

Read more...


Special Reports

RBA To Leave Rates Unchanged, Monitoring Impacts From Floods

This week is an eventful one in Australia with the RBA meeting on Tuesday and the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. We expect policymakers to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% as inflation has stayed in the lower half of the RBA's target band and extensive flooding in Queensland has disrupted the economy. Near-term growth and inflation outlook will be revised lower while those for the medium- to long-term should remain strong. The next rate hike will most likely happen in 2Q11.

Read more...

Economic Indicators Update


This is the ultimate opportunity to meet face-to-face with industry leaders, test out the hottest products and software, and pick up trading ideas and strategies you can implement immediately to increase your percentage of profitable trades! The New York Traders Expo.


GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Dec -18.60% -1.30% 8.80% 7.80%
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Dec -250M 50M -186M
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Jan 51.4 -- 48.3
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Dec P 3.10% 2.80% 1.00%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Dec P 4.60% 4.40% 5.80%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Dec 7.50% 4.60% 6.80%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jan 2.40% 2.30% 2.20%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Nov 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Dec 0.70% 0.60% 0.50% 0.60%
13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Dec 4.20% 3.20% 3.50%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Dec 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30%
13:30 USD Personal Income Dec 0.70% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Dec 1.20% 1.30% 1.00% 1.10%
13:30 USD PCE Core M/M Dec 0.00% 0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Dec 0.70% 0.80% 0.80%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Jan
65 68.6
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9480

Dollar's near term sideways trading is expected to continue and only break of support at 0.9389 would confirm the decline from 0.9784 has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9350, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below support at 0.9323 and recent low at 0.9301 should hold from here.

Read more...

Trade Idea: AUD/USD –Hold short entered at 0.9980

Despite this morning's brief fall to 0.9866, as aussie has rebounded in tandem with euro, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, as long as Friday's high at 0.9988 holds, bearishness remains for another retreat to said support. Looking ahead, only breach of support at 0.9832 would signal the correction from 0.9803 has ended at 1.0077 and bring resumption of the decline from 1.0257 top for retest of 0.9803, then 0.9750.

Read more...

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights