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Daily Report: Aussie Lower on Job Data and China Trade Deficit, Dollar Mildly HigherDollar is mildly higher in a rather active Asian session. Aussie is the weakest one so far following disappointing job data which saw unexpected -10.1k contraction in February. Prior month's job growth was also revised sharply lower to 7.7k. Initial reactions was mild as looking into the details, full-time jobs did post a sharp increase by 47.6k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%. Another bearish factor for the Aussie is that China unexpectedly published USD -7.3b trade deficit in February. That's the biggest deficit in seven years as lunar new year holiday disrupted exports. The two factors combined, though, sent AUD/USD through yesterday's low. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0066; (P) 1.0099; (R1) 1.0139; More AUD/USD dips to 1.0034 so far today and remains soft and the pair should now test 55 days EMA (now at 1.0027). But after all, outlook remains unchanged. As discussed before, AUD/USD is still being supported by the 55 days EMA even though upside momentum has been clearly diminishing since last October, as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. The larger up trend could still continue and above 1.0200 resistance will send AUD/USD to a new high above 1.0254. However, break of 0.9943 will be the first sign of reversal and will turn outlook bearish for 0.9803 support and below. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ Cut -50 Bps, More Than ExpectedThe RBNZ cut the OCR by -50 bps to 2.5% in March, more than we and the market had anticipated. Policymakers believed that the earthquake 'has caused substantial damage to property and buildings, and immense disruption to business activity' and 'it is clear that economic activity, most certainly in Christchurch but also nationwide, will be negatively impacted. Business and consumer confidence has almost certainly deteriorated'. The central bank expected that the emergency low level of interest rates will need to be removed 'once the rebuilding phase materializes'. BOE To Leave Rates Unchanged In March, Pressures Of Tightening Increased ThoughThe BOE will very likely leave the Bank unchanged at 1% and the asset-purchase program at 200B pound at the March meeting. While the decisions will be the same as previous months, the economic backdrops have changed a lot. Recent rally in oil prices has increase global inflationary pressures and the ECB said last week that it may raise interest rates in April. Facing the same price pressures, the market has speculated the BOE will begin tightening in as soon as June. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9350As the greenback has rebounded again after finding support at 0.9283 this morning in Asia, suggesting near term upside risk remains for marginal gain from here, however, as long as resistance at 0.9370 holds, further consolidation would take place with mild downside bias for another retreat. A drop below said intra-day support would bring weakness to yesterday's low at 0.9269, then towards 0.9224 Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6230Although the British pound has retreated after yesterday's rebound to 1.6244, break of support at 1.6125 is needed to signal the decline from 1.6344 top has resumed and bring a stronger correction of recent upmove to 1.6100 and possibly towards minor support at 1.6072, however, reckon next support at 1.6030 would hold. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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