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Mid-Day Report: USD/JPY Extends Decline on Housing Data, Sterling FirmUSD/JPY extends recent decline in early US session after much poorer than expected housing data from US. Yen also remains firm on risk aversion even though BoJ injected additional liquidity into the financial. Euro is mildly lower today after Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates warned that a political crisis would trigger EU bailout. Meanwhile, European stocks fail to maintain earlier gains and turn red again. Swiss Franc is firm against dollar and Euro on geopolitical tensions in Bahrain. Sterling is relatively firm after stronger than expected job data. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.19; (P) 81.12; (R1) 81.63; More. USD/JPY drops further to as low as 80.45 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 80.29 support. As noted before, current development suggests that consolidation pattern from 80.29 has completed at 83.96 already and the larger down trend is likely resuming. Break of 80.29 will target 79.75 (1995 low) next. On the downside, above 81.16 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 83.28 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
| Special Reports |
Fed On Hold, Economic Assessments More BullishAs expected, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset-buying program at $600B with expiry in June. The language used in the meeting statement was more upbeat though, reflecting improvements in economic outlook since the January meeting. Fed members upgraded their assessment on the economic outlook and affirmed that they are paying 'close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations'. Yet, there were no comments on the situation in the Middle East and North Africa nor Japan's earthquake. SNB To Pause Again, But Faces Pressure To Hike Rates Earlier Than Previously ScheduledRecent hawkish comments from the ECB have spurred discussions about rate hikes in the SNB. The pace of recovery in Switzerland accelerated in 2010 after the country emerged out of recession in mid-2009 while inflation has remained subdued. The SNB has kept the 3-month Libor target range unchanged after taking to a record low of 0-0.75% in March 2009 although policymakers believes that 'the current expansionary monetary policy cannot be maintained over the entire forecast horizon without compromising long-term price stability'. A reason keeping policymakers from tightening is strength in Swiss franc which may somehow take a breather as the ECB plans to hike in April. Concerning economic forecasts, we expect the central bank will lift its forecasts on growth and inflation at the meeting. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 81.60As the greenback has remained under pressure, outlook remains bearish for the decline from 83.30 top to resume and extend the fall from 83.30 to 80.40, looking ahead, only a breach of previous support at 80.21 would confirm major downtrend has resumed, bring further fall to psychological support at 80.00 but record low at 79.75 should hold. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 114.20Although the single currency slipped again to as low as 111.97 yesterday, as euro quickly rebounded from there to as high as 113.48 today, suggesting minor low has been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 113.90/00 but reckon renewed selling interest would emerge below 114.40/50, bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the decline from 116.00 top for a stronger retracement of recent upmove Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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