Action Insight Daily Report 3-31-11

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Daily Report: Dollar Index Weakens on Risk Appetite, Resuming Down Trend?

Dollar index is back trading below 76 level as the greenback remains generally pressured by improving risk appetite. DOW edged closer to pre-Japan disaster high of 12391 overnight and is followed by broad based strength in Asian stocks. Rally in equities helped send Aussie to new record high against the greenback. Crude oil is back pressing 105 level on news that Qaddafi's troops retook control of the oil port of Ras Lanuf but is still way off recent high of 106.95. Euro and Sterling recover against the greenback but momentum is weaker so far and both are kept in familiar range.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 82.43; (P) 82.81; (R1) 83.25; More.

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is formed at 83.20 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidation might be seen first but break of 80.50 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remains cautiously bullish and we'd continue to favor further rally. Above 83.20 will target 84.49 key resistance next.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Mar -28 -30 -28
0:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Feb -7.40% 4.00% -15.90% -11.60%
0:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.50% 0.40% 0.40%
2:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Mar -8.7
34.5
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 10.10% 7.40% 2.70%
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices M/M Mar 0.50% -0.10% 0.30% 0.70%
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Mar
-29K -52K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Mar
7.20% 7.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y MAr
2.30% 2.40%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan
0.50% 0.50%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
380K 382K
12:30 USD Chicago PMI Mar
69 71.2
14:00 USD Factory Orders Feb
0.50% 3.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
-2B -6B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9245

Despite yesterday's resumption of upmove to 0.9276, the quick retreat from there formed a shooting star on the hourly chart and the subsequent decline add credence to our view that a temporary top has been formed there and consolidation with downside bias remains for test previous support at 0.9140. Looking ahead, once this support is penetrated, this would bring a stronger retracement of recent rise from 0.8853 for weakness to previous resistance at 0.9124

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4100

Current break of 1.4149 on dollar's broad-based weakness suggests the erratic decline from 1.4249 has ended at 1.4021 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 1.4190/00, however, break of resistance at 1.4220 is needed to retain bullishness and signal correction is over, then recent upmove should resume for a retest of 1.4249 later, otherwise, further choppy consolidation would take place.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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