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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Testing Support after ADP, Breaking Out?Dollar extends earlier weakness despite solid job data. ADP employment report showed 217k expansion private sector job markets in February, above expectation of 185k. Though, challenger report showed 20% yoy increase in planned layoff. Dollar struggles to stage a sustainable recovery as gold continues to make new record high and hit 1437.2 in early US session. Crude oil also stays firm around 100 level. EUR/USD breaches recent resistance of 1.3860 while USD/CHF also breaches 0.9233 support. Nevertheless, no follow through selling in dollar is seen yet. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9265; (P) 0.9293; (R1) 0.9313; More. USD/CHF's break of 0.9233 support argues that fall from 0.9774 is resuming. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further decline should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0065 to 0.9300 from 0.9774 at 0.9009, which coincides with major medium term target. On the upside, above 0.9321 minor resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound. |
| Special Reports |
ECB Should Leave Rates Unchanged, Extend LTRO But Sound More UpbeatThe ECB will likely leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% in March, although delivering a more hawkish tone in the press conference and the accompanying statement. ECB's staff projections on growth and inflation will also be revised up. Concerning the non-standard liquidity measures, the central bank will likely extend the full-allotment procedure for all open market operations for another 3 months but rates may vary. BOC Sees Faster Growth, CAD Retreats on Profit-TakingThe Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish tone in March than previously despite no change in the policy rate. Policymakers stated the recovery in Canada has progressed 'slightly faster than expected' and any rate hike will be carefully considered. The Canadian dollar retreated after surging to a 3-year high against the dollar on profit-taking. RBA On Hold, Sees Only Moderate Inflationary PressureAs widely expected, the RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% as inflation remained contained. The accompanying statement delivered a neutral tone as policymakers see balanced risks to growth and inflation outlook. For the first time in the current tightening cycle, the RBA stated that the current stance of monetary policy is 'mildly restrictive'. Yet it remained 'appropriate in view of the general macroeconomic outlook'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6245Cable's strong rebound after intra-day fall to 1.6216 suggests the correction from yesterday's high of 1.6330 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen but break of said resistance is needed to signal upmove has resumed and extend gain to indicated upside target at 1.6350 but reckon loss of near term upward momentum would limit upside to 1.6390/00 and risk has increased for a minor correction later. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9830Although the greenback has retreated after rebounding from yesterday's low at 0.9684 to 0.9777 (today's high), break of said support is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9650 and possibly 0.9600, otherwise, further consolidation would take place. Above said resistance would bring retracement to 0.9820/30 where renewed selling interest would emerge there, bring another decline Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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