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Mid-Day Report: Risk Aversion Dominates Markets, Yen Rebounds Strongly on RepatriationRisk aversion dominates the markets today after a massive earthquake struck the northeastern part of Japan. The earthquake in Japan of magnitude 8.9, strongest on record, resulted in 10 aftershocks and triggered tsunami, as high as seven meters, that engulfed the coast of Sendai. The natural disasters destroyed houses and killed people in the country. Nikkei dropped 1.7% as the earthquake struck less than half an hour before the market closed but the selloff continued in futures in Singapore exchange. Broad based weakness in other Asian equities were followed in European markets and US pre-trading. Crude oil dropped through 100 psychological level while gold is heading towards 1400. After initial knee jerk reaction, Japanese yen rebounded across the board on risk aversion as well as repatriation. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 82.73; (P) 82.95; (R1) 83.20; More. After edging higher to 83.28, USD/JPY reversed and falls sharply on broad based yen strength. The break of 82.56 minor support indicates that choppy rebound from 81.57 is over. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 81.57 support first and break will target 80.93/81.12 key support zone. Break there will be the first signal of down trend resumption. Also, note that the broader outlook remains unchanged. Recent price actions from 80.29 are treated as sideway consolidations. Hence even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance at 83.96 to limit upside. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ Cut -50 Bps, More Than ExpectedThe RBNZ cut the OCR by -50 bps to 2.5% in March, more than we and the market had anticipated. Policymakers believed that the earthquake 'has caused substantial damage to property and buildings, and immense disruption to business activity' and 'it is clear that economic activity, most certainly in Christchurch but also nationwide, will be negatively impacted. Business and consumer confidence has almost certainly deteriorated'. The central bank expected that the emergency low level of interest rates will need to be removed 'once the rebuilding phase materializes'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6080 or buy at 1.5965Despite intra-day resumption of recent decline from 1.6344 to 1.5977, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5962/63 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5345-1.6344 and previous support) and reckon 1.5953 (61.8% projection of 1.6244-1.6038 measuring from 1.6080) would limit downside, bring rebound later. Above previous support at 1.6038 would bring retracement to 1.6080-87 Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3740Although the single currency has fallen again to an intra-day low of 1.3752 and one more fall to previous support at 1.3744 cannot be ruled out, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon support at 1.3712 would hold, bring a rebound later. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3800) would bring retracement to intra-day high at 1.3841 which is likely to hold from here, bring another decline. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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