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Daily Report: USD/JPY Dived to New Record Low, USD/CHF Breaks 0.9Yen soared to new record high against dollar as the break of previous record high of 79.75 set following the Kobe earthquake was violated. The break triggered massive programmed stop loss orders and the move was exaggerated by thin liquidity during pre-Asian hours. USD/JPY dived to as low as 76.25 on EBS. Yen then retreats sharply back to 79 level against dollar as G7 finance chiefs are set to meet on a conference call tomorrow to discuss the Japan's crisis. There are speculation of a joint intervention to limit yen's disorderly rally. Japan Finance Minister NOda declined to comment on whether there would be intervention in the foreign exchange markets by BoJ. BoJ injected another JPY 6T into the financial system in a one-day operation today, bringing total emergency injections this week to JPY 34T. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 110.30; (P) 110.39; (R1) 110.57; More EUR/JPY's sharp break of 111.95 support and subsequent break of 106.81 indicates that whole consolidations from 105.42 has completed with three waves to 115.96 already, after hitting 55 weeks EMA. In other words, long term down trend is possibly resuming. Though, from a near term angle, some intraday consolidation should be seen first and intraday bias is neutral. In any case, upside of recovery should be limited by 111.95 resistance and bring another fall. Below 109.55 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 106.57 spike low. Break will target a test on 105.42 key support. |
| Special Reports |
SNB To Pause Again, But Faces Pressure To Hike Rates Earlier Than Previously ScheduledRecent hawkish comments from the ECB have spurred discussions about rate hikes in the SNB. The pace of recovery in Switzerland accelerated in 2010 after the country emerged out of recession in mid-2009 while inflation has remained subdued. The SNB has kept the 3-month Libor target range unchanged after taking to a record low of 0-0.75% in March 2009 although policymakers believes that 'the current expansionary monetary policy cannot be maintained over the entire forecast horizon without compromising long-term price stability'. A reason keeping policymakers from tightening is strength in Swiss franc which may somehow take a breather as the ECB plans to hike in April. Concerning economic forecasts, we expect the central bank will lift its forecasts on growth and inflation at the meeting. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6170Despite yesterday's cross-inspired fall from 1.6132, as the British pound has recovered again after holding above indicated strong support area at 1.5977-78, retaining our view that further consolidation within 1.5977-1.6200 range would take place and recovery to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6089), then yesterday's high at 1.6132 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling should emerge around 1.6170/80, bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 80.60Despite intra-day selloff to fresh record low at 76.25 on massive risk aversion, as the greenback has staged a quick and sharp rebound from there, suggesting a temporary low has been formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, above resistance at 79.75 (also previous support) would extend marginal gain to 80.00/10 but renewed selling interest should emerge around 80.60 (previous support turned resistance), bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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