CHF, CAD, Oil Jumped on MENA; EUR/USD Facing Resistance ahead of an Important Week Geopolitical development in Middle East and North Africa was the main theme in financial markets last week as violence in Libya escalated. Swiss Franc strengthened across the board and jumped to new record high against dollar. Crude oil breached 100 level briefly on worry of supply disruption and, in a somewhat delayed manner, sent Canadian dollar to three year high against dollar. Australian dollar also managed to strengthen on strength in commodity prices. Euro and Sterling were supported by rate speculations initial. But Euro gave way after failing key near term resistance while Sterling dropped after renewed worry on growth. Dollar received no support from risk aversion. However, the dollar index seemed to stabilizing ahead of 76.88 key near term support level and we would probably see some recovery this week as oil consolidates around 100 level. Full Report Here... | 
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook EUR/USD rose further to 1.3837 last week but faced some resistance ahead of 1.3860 and retreated. A temporary top is at least formed and initial bias is neutral this week. As noted before, we're favoring the case that consolidations from 1.3860 is not over yet. That is, rise from 1.3427 is possibly the second leg of the consolidation. Hence, even in case of another rise, the pair would face strong resistance at 1.3860 and bring another fall. Below 1.3704 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.3427 as the third leg consolidations. But after all, outlook in EUR/USD will remain cautiously bullish with 1.3253 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.3860 at 1.3250) intact. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later. Meanwhile, decisive break of 1.3860 will confirm that rise from 1.2873 has resumed and should target 1.4281 high next. Read more... |
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