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Mid-Day Report: USD/CAD at 3-Year Low, CHF Strengthens BroadlyCanadian dollar jumps to three year high against dollar as focuses are turning back to economic fundamentals. Markets are back in risk on mode on optimism for global growth after some positive economic data from US recently, and as Fed upgraded its growth forecasts. Canadian dollar remains preferred to the greenback on expectation of stronger demand for crude oil, even though oil price remains soft below 86 level. In additional, markets are buying loonie on expectation that BoC would have another three rate hikes in the next 12 months as strong exports boost the economy. Some more downside would likely be seen in USD/CAD in near term. However, we'd like to point out that momentum has been diminishing since last August and the USD/CAD could face some strong support around 0.98 level to bring yet another rebound. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9517; (P) 0.9628; (R1) 0.9702; More. USD/CHF's fall from 0.9774 accelerates to as low as 0.9511 so far today. The break of 0.9523 support argues that rebound from 0.9329 is completed already. Also, with 0.9782 resistance intact, USD/CHF's price actions from 0.9300 might be a consolidation in the larger down trend only and has completed. Intraday bias is now on the downside for deeper fall to retest 0.9300/9329 support zone first. On the upside, above 0.9601 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But we won't turn bullish before sustained break of 0.9782 resistance. |
| Special Report |
Fed Appears More Confident Over US Growth OutlookThe minutes of the January FOMC meeting unveiled that policymakers are more confident that the economic recovery would sustain and strengthened although the pace of improvement in the job market has been rather disappointing. It appeared the more hawkish members would tolerate QE2 to be carried out until expiry but they would not support additional measures. The new set of economic projections showed more upbeat forecasts on growth and employment outlooks while the prospect for inflation remained subdued. BOE Raised Inflation Forecasts, Yet Lowered Growth OutlookThe pound slumped against the US dollar and the euro as the BOE revised lower it growth forecasts despite higher inflationary outlook in the near-term. In its quarterly inflation report, the BOE unveiled the outlook that inflation will most likely fall a little below the target in the second half of 2012, but the risks relative to that most likely path are 'skewed to the upside'. Growth forecasts were revised lower as higher interest rate assumption (1%) was used and GDP growth in 4Q10 was weak. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9645As the greenback has remained under pressure after yesterday's selloff from 0.9739 to 0.9554, suggesting the decline from 0.9776 top is still in progress and a sustained break of support at 0.9553-54 would extend weakness to next support at 0.9523 and possibly towards 0.9500 but reckon 0.9455/60 would hold from there due to near term oversold condition. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Exit short entered at 0.9950Although intra-day breach of indicated support at 0.9832 confirms our view for a resumption of recent decline and price fell to as low as 0.9816, lack of follow through selling suggests downside is likely to be limited to 0.9800 and risk has increased for a minor correction later. Above intra-day resistance at 0.9859 would bring retracement towards this week's high of 0.9904 but renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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