Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-3-11


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Mid-Day Report: Euro Tumbles as Trichet Doesn't Turn More Hawkish

Euro tumbles sharply after ECB Trichet signaled that the bank is in no hurry to raise rates from the current record low level. ECB left the policy rates unchanged at 1.0% today as widely expected and Trichet said that it remains "appropriate" in spited of recent jump in energy prices. While Trichet pledged to monitor price developments closely, he also emphasized that the developments "These developments have not so far affected our assessment that price developments will remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon." This disappointed euro bulls who expected some thing more hawkish from ECB after CPI stayed above ECB's target of 2% for a second month in January.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.23; (P) 112.57; (R1) 112.95; More

EUR/JPY's sharp fall in early US session suggests that pull back from 114.40 is resuming. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 111.41 first. Break will target 100% projection at 110.31. But still, we'd expect downside to be contained by 109.56 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 106.81 to 114.00 at 109.55) and bring rally resumption. The broader outlook remains unchanged that rise from 106.81 is the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 105.42. Above, 112.90 will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Break of 114.00 will target 115.65 and then 100% projection of 105.42 to 115.65 from 106.81 at 117.04.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q4 6.80% 6.50% 6.40%
00:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Dec 8.70% 1.30% -4.20% -3.90%
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Dec 1.98B 1.63B 1.93B 2.08B
07:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Dec 1.28B 1.72B 1.93B 1.79B
08:55 EUR German PMI Services Jan F 60.3 60 60
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Jan F 55.9 55.2 55.2
09:30 GBP PMI Services Jan 54.5 51 49.7
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Dec -0.60% 0.50% -0.80% -0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Dec -0.90% 0.20% 0.10%
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
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13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 415K 420K 454K
13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q4 P 2.60% 2.00% 2.30%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q4 P -0.60% 0.50% -0.10%
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Jan
57 57.1
15:00 USD Factory Orders Dec
1.00% 0.70%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
-185B -174B
Forex Trade Ideas

Remark: Due to Chinese New Year holidays, next Candlesticks and Ichimoku Trade Idea update will be made on Monday 7 Feb.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

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