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Daily Report: Aussie Down on Mixed Job Data, BoE WatchedAussie is weighed down by mixed employment data today. The headline job growth beat expectation by increasing 24k in January while unemployment rate held steady at 5%, not bad. However, looking into the details, full-time employment dropped by -8k to 8.022m while part-time employment rose by 32k to 3.419m. The data add to speculation that RBA will be cautious in having another rate hike. It's believed that RBA would not raise rate again in Q1. The odds for two hikes this year, as implied by swaps, also dropped slightly after the data. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0090; (P) 1.0121; (R1) 1.0154; More AUD/USD's fall from 1.0199 extends further today and note that 4 hours MACD has broken it's trend line. Choppy rebound from 0.9803 might have finished at 1.0199 already. Break of 1.0055 minor support will affirm this case and turn bias to the downside for 0.9803 support first. Also, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.9803 suggests that fall from 1.0254 is not over yet. Break of 0.9803 will confirm this case and target 100% projection of 1.0254 to 09803 from 1.0199 at 0.9748 next. On the upside, above 1.0119 will should bring up trend resumption instead. |
| Special Report |
ECB Unlikely To Raise Interest Rates Despite Higher Inflationary Pressures In Coming MonthsThe ECB has been increasing concerned about inflationary pressure in the region. While the central bank decided to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterated current monetary policy as 'appropriate'. Several council members have voiced their worries about rising price levels. Indeed, Eurozone's inflation primarily comes from food and energy prices and these risks should continue to put upward risks to price levels in coming months. That said, the ECB should remain cautious in changing its accommodative policy stance as it's difficult to control food and energy prices through tightening. Moreover, euro's strength and the market's rate hike expectations have helped the central bank to do some of the tightening. BOE To Stay Sidelined But The Chance Of Early Rate Hike IncreasingWhile the BOE will very likely leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset-purchase program at 200B pound, the chance that the central bank will raise interest rates earlier than we had anticipated (4Q11) is increasing. Inflationary pressures have head sharply higher with the annual rate jumping to +3.7% in December from +3.3% in the prior month. The CPI has overshot the upper limit of BOE's target since January 2010. In January, the UK composite PMI rose to 56.5, a level close to where the BOE hiked rates in the past. PMIs rebounded in January from weather-affected readings in December, strengthening the case for a rate hike. While 2 MPC members favored raising interest rates higher, the majority is, however cautious and prefers to see more evidence of recovery before implementing tightening policies. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3765Current break of yesterday's high at 1.3689 signals the rebound from this week's low at 1.3508 is still in progress and may bring a stronger retracement of last week's fall from 1.3862 to 1.3727 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3862 to 1.3508), however, reckon previous minor support at 1.3767 would limit upside and bring retreat later today or tomorrow. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 1.0000Although the greenback has retreated after yesterday's rise to 0.9978, below 0.9900 is needed to suggest the rebound from 0.9832 has ended there and bring test of yesterday's low at 0.9869, otherwise, upside risk remains for another corrective rise to 1.0000 but renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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