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Daily Report: Dollar Firmer on Egypt, Portugal, Aussie Lower on RBA CommentsDollar is mildly firmer today as supported by risk aversion trades over Egypt's situation as well as worry on Portugal. There were news reported overnight that Egyptian President Mubarak would step down but it turned out eventually that Mubarak insisted to stay as president. He only offered to powers until an election in September. His speech triggered angers among antigovernment protesters in Tahrir Square in Cairo and they're now planning bigger protests ahead. Asian equities are broadly lower following negative closes in US. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0090; (P) 1.0121; (R1) 1.0154; More AUD/USD's fall from 1.0199 extends further to as low as 0.9968 so far today. The development suggests that whole fall from 1.0254 high is still in progress and is likely resuming. Intraday bias is back to the downside for 0.9803/9831 support first. Break will confirm decline resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.0254 to 09803 from 1.0199 at 0.9748 next. On the upside, above 1.0065 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first and bring some recovery. |
| Special Report |
ECB Unlikely To Raise Interest Rates Despite Higher Inflationary Pressures In Coming MonthsThe ECB has been increasing concerned about inflationary pressure in the region. While the central bank decided to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterated current monetary policy as 'appropriate'. Several council members have voiced their worries about rising price levels. Indeed, Eurozone's inflation primarily comes from food and energy prices and these risks should continue to put upward risks to price levels in coming months. That said, the ECB should remain cautious in changing its accommodative policy stance as it's difficult to control food and energy prices through tightening. Moreover, euro's strength and the market's rate hike expectations have helped the central bank to do some of the tightening. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3655As the single currency has remained under pressure after retreating from this week's high of 1.3745, adding credence to our view that the correction from 1.3508 temporary low has ended there and bearishness remains for further weakness towards this support, break there would confirm last week's fall from 1.3862 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3470 and 1.3450 later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 82.70As the greenback has continued to move higher, suggesting the rise from last week's low at 81.10 is still in progress and further gain to resistance at 83.70 is underway, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 84.00/10 would limit upside, risk retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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