Action Insight Daily Report 2-14-11

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Daily Report: Risk Appetite Recovers in Asian Session, Dollar Soft

Risk appetite in Asian session is lifted mildly by resolution in the Egypt turmoil as well as slightly better than expected GDP data from Japan. Dollar is mildly softer against other major currencies. Japanese yen manages to gain together with Nikkei. Though, Euro is notably lagging others in rebounding against the greenback as it's remain vulnerable to the downside on debt worries. Also, while also Aussie rebound strongly against dollar on stocks today, Kiwi is under much pressure on dismal retail sales data.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 83.20; (P) 83.44; (R1) 83.65; More.

USD/JPY's retreat today and break of 83.19 minor support suggests that a temporary top is in place at 83.66 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations would be seen first. But we'd expect downside to be contained above 82.45 support and bring another rise. As noted before, sustained break of 83.67 resistance will confirm our bullish view that rise form 80.93 is resuming and should target 84.49 resistance first. However, below 82.45 will dampen this view and turn outlook mixed.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Dec -1.10% -0.40% 1.50% 1.20%
21:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Dec -1.20% -0.30% -0.20% -0.40%
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q4 P -0.30% -0.40% 1.10% 0.80%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 P -1.60% -1.40% -2.40% -2.10%
0:30 AUD Home Loans Dec 2.10% 1.00% 2.50%
2:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Jan 6.5B 10.3B 13.1B
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec -0.20% 1.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Dec 8.00% 7.90%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9650

Although the single currency rose to as high as 0.9776 last Friday (we recommended to sell at 0.9780), as the greenback has retreated after faltering below previous resistance at 0.9784, suggesting consolidation would be seen and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9669) is likely, however, the lower Kumo (now at 0.9628) should hold and bring another rise later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3620

As the single currency has recovered after holding above Friday's low at 1.3497, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen and retracement to 1.3610-15 (previous support and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) is likely, however, reckon the upper Kumo (now at 1.3653) would hold, bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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