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Daily Report: Swiss Franc Jumps on SNB Inflation Comments, BoE Inflation Report in FocusSwiss franc jumps sharply today as SNB chairman Philipp Hildebrand said in a newspaper interview that inflationary pressures have increased. And, the pressures are mainly shown through "development of prices for energy and agriculture commodities". Nevertheless, Hildebrand also said that the strength of Swissy is "shielding Switzerland to a certain degree". The SNB was under criticism earlier this year on the huge losses on currency intervention while SNB and the Finance Ministry defended by emphasizing the risk of deflation in 2009. It's believed that SNB hold their nerve to resume intervention unless that is notable sign of deflation risk and Hildebrand's comment suggests that Swiss is still far from that. Note that EUR/CHF dropped through 1.0343 near term support and would likely head deeper through 1.2779 support in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3006; (P) 1.3071; (R1) 1.3107; More EUR/CHF's break of 1.3043 minor support suggests that rebound from 1.2401 has likely completed at 1.3203 already, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further fall should be seen through 38.2% retracement of 1.2401 to 1.3203 at 1.2897 towards 1.2779 support first. On the upside, above 1.3136 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 1.3203 and above. Nevertheless, we're still treating rebound from 1.2401 as a correction only and hence, we'd expect strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 1.3833 to 1.2401 at 1.3286 to limit upside and bring reversal. |
| Special Report |
RBA Appears Comfortable With Current StanceRBA's minutes for the February largely echoed what Governor Glenn Stevens said before the parliament last Friday. Policymakers were comfortable to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. While floods that had occurred in December and January in eastern Australia would have strong impact on the economy in the near-term, it would not affect the central bank's monetary policy which focuses on the medium-term outlook for the economy. Dependent of economic indicators, we currently retain our view that the RBA will resume tightening in the second quarter. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3590As the single currency has rebounded again after holding above indicated support at 1.3460 (yesterday's low), retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 1.3585-90 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3745 to 1.3428), however, reckon 1.3625/30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring decline later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 84.10Although the greenback eased after rising to 83.93 yesterday, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 83.39) would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend one more rise to 84.05/10 (50% projection of 81.77 to 83.68 measuring from 83.09) but loss of momentum would limit upside to 84.25/30 (61.8% projection) and bring correction later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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