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Daily Report: USD/JPY Rises on Yield, Bernanke Testimony and 10 Year Bond Auction WatchedDollar jumps against yen and Swissy as US treasury yields extend recent rally. The benchmark 10 year yield soared to close at 3.725%, after $32b auction of the three-year notes showed weak demand. US Treasury sold three year notes at annualized yield of 1.349% yesterday, slightly higher than market expectations. However, indirect bidders including foreign central banks bought a mere 27.6% of the notes. That was the lowest level since May 2007 and was well below average of 37% in the past six months. The result raised some concern on the $24b of 10 year debt today and pushed yields higher in general. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3569; (P) 1.3628 (R1) 1.3685; More. EUR/USD's recovery from 1.3510 extends further in early US session and intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 1.3860 resistance. Though, we'd expect some resistance from there to limit upside and bring another fall to extend consolidations from 1.3860. Below 1.3610 will flip bias back to the downside for 1.3510 and below. However, even in that case, strong support should be seen above 1.3253 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.3860 at 1.3250) and bring rise resumption. Outlook in EUR/USD remains cautiously bullish as fall from 1.4281 should have completed with three waves down to 1.2873. We'd expect rise from 1.2873 to resume sooner or later towards 1.4281 key resistance next. |
| Special Report |
BOE To Stay Sidelined But The Chance Of Early Rate Hike IncreasingWhile the BOE will very likely leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset-purchase program at 200B pound, the chance that the central bank will raise interest rates earlier than we had anticipated (4Q11) is increasing. Inflationary pressures have head sharply higher with the annual rate jumping to +3.7% in December from +3.3% in the prior month. The CPI has overshot the upper limit of BOE's target since January 2010. In January, the UK composite PMI rose to 56.5, a level close to where the BOE hiked rates in the past. PMIs rebounded in January from weather-affected readings in December, strengthening the case for a rate hike. While 2 MPC members favored raising interest rates higher, the majority is, however cautious and prefers to see more evidence of recovery before implementing tightening policies. |
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3765Current break of yesterday's high at 1.3689 signals the rebound from this week's low at 1.3508 is still in progress and may bring a stronger retracement of last week's fall from 1.3862 to 1.3727 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3862 to 1.3508), however, reckon previous minor support at 1.3767 would limit upside and bring retreat later today or tomorrow. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 1.0000Although the greenback has retreated after yesterday's rise to 0.9978, below 0.9900 is needed to suggest the rebound from 0.9832 has ended there and bring test of yesterday's low at 0.9869, otherwise, upside risk remains for another corrective rise to 1.0000 but renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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