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Mid-Day Report: Euro Pares Gain after Ireland Downgrade, Dollar Steady after ADPEuro pares some gain after S&P cut Ireland's credit rating one level from A to A- and warned of further downgrade. S&P said the negative outlook reflects the view of "uncertainties surrounding the size of Ireland's additional capital needs for its largely state-owned financial sector." US ADP Employment report came in higher than expected at 187k in January but was shadowed by downward revision of December's figure from 297k to 247k. Thus, there is little support to the greenback in early US session. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6045; (P) 1.6104; (R1) 1.6200; More. GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.6229 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for a retest on 1.6298 high first. On the downside, below 1.6125 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.5750 support and bring another rise. |
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| Special Reports |
ECB To Keep Policy Rate At 1% Despite Higher Inflation PressureThe ECB is expected to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate the current monetary policy as 'appropriate' in February. Concerning inflation, President Trichet will regard recent rise in inflation as temporary and stress that the ECB will be act if needed if it sees second-round effects from rising commodity prices. We retain our view that the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged throughout 2011. However, an early rate hike cannot be ruled out if there are signs significant upside pressure from domestic prices. RBA Leaves Cash Rate Unchanged, Expects Limited Impacts From FloodingThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a second consecutive meeting after raising it for 7 times since October 2009. Policymakers appeared more optimistic towards the global economic outlook. Tightening bias remains and the central bank will probably hike interest rates again in 2Q11. Currently, the market has priced in a 16% chance the RBA will hike rates in June, up from +12% before the meeting. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6085As the British pound has retreated after intra-day rise to 1.6232, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6156) is likely, however, reckon minor support at 1.6080/85 would attract renewed buying interest and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend recent upmove to 1.6243GBP/USD - 1.6194 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 111.85The single currency found renewed buying interest at 111.88 yesterday and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness for further gain to 113.00 and possibly to 113.50, however, price should falter well below resistance at 114.02 and bring another leg of corrective decline later this week. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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