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Daily Report: Yen Reverses after Initial GainThe Japanese yen edged higher initially as the week starts but reversed into European session. Asian equities opened lower today as worry on continnuing unrest in MENA and risk of spread over. Also, there are concerns that the new Irish goverment would seek to share the burden of financial system recus with senior bank bondholders. Also, China Premier lowered the country's growth target. However, Japanese stock staged a strong rebound after news that Mizuho Securties will be bought out but its parent company. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 111.88; (P) 112.66; (R1) 113.11; More EUR/JPY recovers after dipping to as low as 111.95. But after all, near term outlook remains unchanged. Consolidations from 114.00 is likely still in progress with fall from 114.15 as the third leg. Deeper decline is still in favor towards 110.77 support and possibly below. Though, downside is expected to be contained above 109.56 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 106.81 to 114.00 at 109.55) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, decisive break of 114.15 will confirm rally resumption and target 115.65 resistance next. |
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| Special Reports |
RBA Comfortable With Current Rates, Weighs Growth Higher Than InflationRBA's Policymakers appear to be comfortable with an above-neutral policy rate for now. Therefore, it's highly likely that the central bank will pause again at the March meeting, leaving the cash rate at 4.75%. The accompanying statement is expected to contain little surprises as much was talked during a speech (by Governor Glenn Stevens) in Melbourne last week. Compared with the previous meeting, the new information would be on the heightened inflation outlook as induced by recent rally in oil prices. The Governor may also want to talk about the impacts of a slowdown in Chinese growth. BoC to Leave Policy Rate UnchangedThe Bank of Canada will likely leave the overnight rate unchanged at 1%. Policymakers will note that domestic economic growth has softened recently though the global outlook has shown more sustainability. The tone in the policy statement will remain dovish, indicating presence of some event risks: strength in Canadian dollar since the last meeting, renewed sovereign concerns in the European periphery and civil unrests in the Middle East and North Africa. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6100As the British pound has risen again after Friday's rebound from 1.6030, suggesting the fall from 1.6275 has formed a low there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of Friday's high at 1.6161 and then test of 1.6179-81 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6275-1.6030) but reckon upside would be limited to minor resistance at 1.6210/15 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 82.25Although the greenback retreated after rebounding to 82.07 last Friday, break of last week's low at 81.62 is needed to confirm decline from 83.98 has resumed and extend weakness towards recent low at 81.10, otherwise, further consolidation would take place and another corrective rise to said resistance at 82.07 cannot be ruled out. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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