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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Selloff Continues on Strengthen in Euro, Oil and GoldDollar remains generally weak across the board, facing pressure from rising commodities as well as strength in Euro. Dollar index drops to as low as 75.10 to extend recent down trend while crude oil reaches as high as 111.90 and gold breaks 1470 level. EUR/USD stand firms above 1.44 level and is still extending the current rally. The common currency is also supported by strong German data, which showed exports jumped 2.7% mom in February, recovering the -1.0% mom loss in January. The 2.7% rise was the biggest month-to-month increase since September. The affirms market expectation that ECB isn't finished with the tightening cycle yet even though Trichet didn't clearly signal that another hike is on the card in the next few months. Markets are pricing in over five 25bps hike in the next 12 months. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6272; (P) 1.6311; (R1) 1.6360; More. GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.6426 so far today and the break of 1.6400 resistance confirms that whole rise from 1.5343 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6588. On the downside, below 1.6255 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. |
| Special Reports |
ECB raises Policy Rate to 1.25%, Makes no Signal for Further IncreasesAs expected, the ECB lifted the main refinancing rate by +25 bps to 1.25% at today's meeting. This is the first rate hike since July 2008 as the central bank feels obliged to combat inflation. However, the central bank left the interest rate corridor unchanged (the deposit rate and marginal lending rates were both increased by +25bp to 0.5% and 2.0% respectively). At the accompanying statement, President Trichet stated the current stance of monetary policy remains 'accommodative' but he did not signal further rate hikes in coming months. BOJ Expands Easing Measures To Stimulate RecoveryThe BOJ accelerates its easing measures to stimulate economic growth after the Great East Japan earthquake. In addition to increasing the amount of the Asset Purchase Program by about 5 trillion yen, as well as injecting as much as 18 trillion yen to the market, shortly after the disaster, the central bank offered 1 trillion yen in one-year loans for businesses in disaster areas. Interest rates remained at virtually 0%. Policymakers also downgraded their economic assessments for the first time since October 2010. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6460Although the British pound has retreated after intra-day rise to projected level at 1.6430, as long as the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6300 holds, near term upside risk remains for recent upmove to extend one more rise to 1.6460/65, however, loss of upward momentum should limit upside and bring correction of recent upmove later. Below the upper Kumo would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed and bring test previous support at 1.6257 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 120.00Although the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after finding renewed buying interest at 120.76 yesterday, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 123.30/35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 134.37 to 105.44) and risk from there has increased for a minor correction soon. Below 121.90/00 would bring retracement to 121.00/10 and then said support at 120.76, however, euro may find fresh demand around 120.00, then another rally would take place next week Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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