Dollar Lower after S&P Downgrades US Outlook, Euro Extends Pullback on Spain Auction - Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-18-11

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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Lower after S&P Downgrades US Outlook, Euro Extends Pullback on Spain Auction

Dollar extends decline against Swiss Franc and Yen in early US session after S&P revised it's outlook for US. While the rating agency kept US's AAA sovereign debt rating, outlook was cut from stable to negative as "more than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S. policymakers have still not agreed on how to reverse recent fiscal deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures." Meanwhile the rating agency "believe there is a material risk that U.S. policymakers might not reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary challenges by 2013."

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8903; (P) 0.8931; (R1) 0.8947; More.

With 0.8990 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains cautiously on the downside and a break of 0.8895 will extend recent decline towards 61.8% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8812 next. On the upside, above 0.8990 will suggest short term bottoming and bring recovery through 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9028).

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q1 0.80% 1.00% 2.30%
22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q1 4.50% 4.60% 4.00%
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Apr 1.70%
0.80%
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices Y/Y Apr 0.10%
0.90%
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Feb 2.5B 10.00B 13.29B
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Apr
17 17
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr A
-11 -10.6
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4350

As the single currency has remained under pressure after intra-day selloff, suggesting the decline from last week's high of 1.4521 is still in progress and further weakness to previous support at 1.4243 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.4212 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4021 to 1.4521) and reckon 1.4190/00 would hold and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0440

Despite Friday's rise to 1.0579, as the Australian dollar has retreated after faltering this level today, suggesting consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen and pullback to 1.0490/00 is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.0440/50 and bring another rise later. A break of recent high at 1.0581 is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.0645/50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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