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Daily Report: Aussie Lower on Trade Deficit and RBAAustralia dollar is mildly lower in Asia today after data showed the country unexpectedly recorded the first trade deficit in almost a year. Also, RBA left rates unchanged and published a rather balanced statement. Trade balance swung from revised AUD 1.43b surplus in February to AUD 0.21b in January and ended a 10 month run of surplus, which was the longest streak since 1972-73. Exports posted a second straight month of contraction as intense flooding across Queensland hampered coal exports. Meanwhile, the Japan's disaster would probably hamper Australian exports in the coming months but would at least be partially offset by surge in commodity prices. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0326; (P) 1.0371; (R1) 1.0407; More Current development in AUD/USD suggests that a short term top is possibly in place at 1.0415, ahead of 100% projection of 0.9536 to 1.0254 from 0.9704 at 1.0422, on mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0269) and possibly lower to 38.2% retracement of 0.9704 to 1.0415 at 1.0143. But there is no indicate of trend reversal yet. Sustained break of 1.0422 will target 161.8% projection at 1.0866. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Leaves Cash Rate at 4.75%As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a 4th meeting as policymakers view the current monetary stance is 'mildly restrictive' and 'appropriate'. The accompanying statement is almost the same as the previous one, signaling little has changed since the March meeting. The RBA stated that the floods hit Queensland over the summer 'have reduced output and the resumption of coal production in flooded mines is taking longer than initially expected'. Concerning the situation in Japan, the central bank believed it will have 'a noticeable effect on Japanese production in the near term, although the impact on the broader Asian region is expected to be limited'. New Tankan Survey Shows Modest Drop In Sentiment After Earthquake. Actual Impacts Far More SeriousThe BOJ released the 'post-earthquake' Tankan survey today, separating responses received from February 24 to March 11 and from March 12 to March 31. While forward-looking business sentiment for the second quarter was weakened after the earthquake, the headline diffusion indices (DIs) was largely unchanged before and after the natural disaster. We believe this set of data is not representative and does not reflect the full effects of the earthquake as companies surveyed after the disaster numbered 2 618, just around one-third of the 7998 companies surveyed before the disaster. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9290As the greenback rebounded after yesterday's fall to 0.9192 (where a morning star candlestick pattern was formed) as suggested, we are keeping our view that further consolidation would take place and above 0.9257-61 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and yesterday's high) would bring stronger recovery to 0.9280-90 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9341 to 0.9192). Having said that, as top has been formed at 0.9341 last Friday, reckon upside would be limited and bring another decline later Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6070As the British pound has slipped again this morning in tandem with euro, retaining our view that further consolidation below yesterday's high at 1.6176 would take place and retracement to 1.6090/95 is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.6062) and bring another rise later. Above said resistance would extend recent rise from 1.5937 to 1.6195/00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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