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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Soars on Solid Retail Sales, Euro Pares GainSterling jumps sharply earlier today after stronger than expected retail sales report. Meanwhile, strength in the pound and swissy drags down Euro, which also pares gains against the greenback ahead of long Easter weekend. CDS on Greece and Portugal jump to record high of 1324 basis points and 640 basis points today on never-ending concern of European debt crisis and Greece CDS signaling 67.4% chance of default in Greece within five years. Dollar stabilizes a bit as European equities are just mildly higher but remains generally weak. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8830; (P) 0.8922; (R1) 0.8970; More. USD/CHF drops to as low as 0.8780 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current decline should now target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8851 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 0.9006 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Special Reports |
BOE Monetary Stance Unchanged, May Tightening UnlikelyThe April BOE minutes unveiled that 3 members voted for a rate hike while the rest favored leaving the Bank rate unchanged as it's yet to confirm whether the slowdown in growth had been temporary. One member, while voting for maintenance of interest rates, preferred to increase the size of the asset-purchase program by +50B pound. On net, the minutes remained dovish and the central bank will probably leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.5% until 3Q11. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD –Buy at 1.6475As the British pound has continued to move higher after intra-day cross-inspired rally due to the release of better-than-expected UK retail sales data, bullishness remains for recent upmove to extend gain to indicated upside target at 1.6590/00 (61.8% projection of 1.5345-1.6403 measuring from 1.5937), however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.6655/60 (100% projection of 1.5937-1.6430 measuring from 1.6166) Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9600As the greenback has rebounded after intra-day brief fall to 0.9455, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to 0.9580/85 is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 0.9600 and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend recent downtrend in wave 3 to 0.9430, however, as this move is viewed as the final leg of 3 reckon downside would be limited to 0.9400 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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