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Mid-Day Report: Euro Lower on Portugal Downgrade, Sterling Jumps in Services PMIMoody's downgraded Portuguese debt rating for a second time in less than a month day, by one notch from A3 to Baa1. The rating agency also placed the country on review for another downgrade. Yield on portugal's 10 year bond jumps after the news to above 8.75%. CDS also rose above 590 basis points and is above Ireland's level for the first time since August 2010. Portugal's situation has deteriorated after the government failed to seek approval of the budget. Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigned and election for the new government will take place on June 5. Moody's expects the elected government will tap the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) with 'urgency'. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6010; (P) 1.6071; (R1) 1.6171; More. GBP/USD rebounds further to as high as 1.6262 so far today and breaks mentioned 61.8% retracement of 1.6400 to 1.5935 at 1.6222 as expected. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rise. But we'd expect strong resistance near to 1.6400 high to limit upside and bring another fall to extend the consolidation. Below 1.6091 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.5935 support and below. Though, sustained break of 1.6400 will confirm rally resumption. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Leaves Cash Rate at 4.75%As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a 4th meeting as policymakers view the current monetary stance is 'mildly restrictive' and 'appropriate'. The accompanying statement is almost the same as the previous one, signaling little has changed since the March meeting. The RBA stated that the floods hit Queensland over the summer 'have reduced output and the resumption of coal production in flooded mines is taking longer than initially expected'. Concerning the situation in Japan, the central bank believed it will have 'a noticeable effect on Japanese production in the near term, although the impact on the broader Asian region is expected to be limited'. New Tankan Survey Shows Modest Drop In Sentiment After Earthquake. Actual Impacts Far More SeriousThe BOJ released the 'post-earthquake' Tankan survey today, separating responses received from February 24 to March 11 and from March 12 to March 31. While forward-looking business sentiment for the second quarter was weakened after the earthquake, the headline diffusion indices (DIs) was largely unchanged before and after the natural disaster. We believe this set of data is not representative and does not reflect the full effects of the earthquake as companies surveyed after the disaster numbered 2 618, just around one-third of the 7998 companies surveyed before the disaster. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9290As the greenback has rebounded after intra-day retreat from 0.9255 to 0.9205, suggesting further consolidation would take place and break of said resistance (this is also the same level as the Ichimoku cloud top) would bring stronger rebound to 0.9280-90 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9341 to 0.9192). Having said that, as top has been formed at 0.9341 last Friday, reckon upside would be limited and bring another decline later Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0320Although aussie has continued to move lower, as this move from yesterday's high at 1.0422 is viewed as retracement of recent rise, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0260/70 and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend recent upmove in wave v of 5 for gain towards 1.0500, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 1.0550/60 would hold from here Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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