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Daily Report: Markets Sentiments Hit Mildly by Strong China CPIMarkets sentiments is hit mildly earlier today after strong Chinese inflation data triggered concern of further tightening from China. Asian equities are generally lower but losses are limited so far. Yen strengthens mildly together with falling stocks and recent decline in yen crosses might continue as the day goes. Dollar also recovers mildly but strength is muted. The greenback would continue to face pressure from surging commodity prices with gold making another record high at 1480 and silver extends up trend through 42 level. Euro and swissy are both resilient and would likely remain strong against the greenback even though Moody's just downgraded Ireland's rating by two notches to Baa3 from Baa1 and issued a negative outlook. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 135.61; (P) 136.18; (R1) 137.08; More GBP/JPY is consolidation around 4 hours 55 EMA for the moment but lacks buying for a meaning recovery. With 137.62 minor resistance intact, pull back from 139.99 is still in favor to extend further lower. But we'd continue to expect strong support above 132.95 resistance turned support to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 132.62 will flip bias back to the upside to retest 139.99 first. Break will target 50% retracement of 163.05 to 122.40 at 142.72 next. |
| Special Reports |
China to Tighten Further as Inflation Remains ElevatedChina's macroeconomic report revealed a robust economic environment despite government tightening. GDP expanded +9.7% y/y in 1Q11 while CPI jumped to +5.4%, the highest level in 32 months, in March. Asian stock markets declined after the report as investors worried that the government will accelerate tightening measures as inflation remains elevated. While we believe we should be cautious towards further tightening, we should not view it too pessimistically. Indeed, Premier Wen Jiao Bao warned earlier in the week about over-tightening while raising the tone on inflation fighting. Beige Book Shows Widespread Improvements In Virtually Every DistrictThe Beige Book based on information collected before April 4 2011 was modestly upbeat. The economy in the 12 regional Fed districts 'generally continued to improve'. The Fed stated that 'while many districts described the improvements as only moderate, most districts stated that gains were widespread across sectors'. Concerning recent surges in commodity prices, the survey revealed that pressures to increase wages were 'weak or subdued'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4450Although the single currency staged a strong rebound after forming a hammer candlestick bullish pattern on the hourly chart yesterday, as euro has retreated after faltering below yesterday's high at 1.4514, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4439) should limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of resistance at 1.4520 is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.4545/50 Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8890Euro's intra-day retreat suggests a temporary top has possibly been formed at 0.8924 yesterday and as long as this level holds, consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to minor support at 0.8793, break there would add credence to this view and correction to 0.8750 would follow, however, support at 0.8715 (last week's low) should remain intact, bring another upmove later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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