Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-12-11

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Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Shrugs off Poor Data, Breaks 1.45

After some initial pressure, Euro shrugs off poor confidence data and resumes rally against the greenback in early US session. EUR/USD now takes out 1.45 level and recent rise is showing some sign of acceleration and could be heading to 1.5 psychological level. Dollar and yen both pare earlier gains. Data from US saw trade deficit narrowed to -45.6b in February while import price rose 2.7% mom in March. Canadian dollar is steady after BoC left rates unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. Canadian trade balance came in at CAD 0B in February while new housing price rose 0.4%.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4408; (P) 1.4446 (R1) 1.4471; More.

EUR/USD's rally resumes after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 1.4518 in early US session. Recent rally has resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4377 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Mar -3.50%
-0.40%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Mar -23.00% -23.00% -26.00%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Mar 2.70% 2.50% 2.40%
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Mar 9
14
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Mar F 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Mar F 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb 49.50%
73.90%
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Feb -6.8B -8.1B -7.1B -7.8B
08:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Feb 0.70% 0.10% 0.50%
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Mar 0.30% 0.60% 0.70%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Mar 4.00% 4.40% 4.40%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Mar 3.20% 3.30% 3.40%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Mar 0.50% 0.60% 1.00%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Mar 5.30% 5.50% 5.50%
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Mar 7.6 11.3 14.1
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) Mar 87.1 85.2 85.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) MAr 19.7 29.8 31
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Feb 0.0B 0.7B 0.1B 0.4B
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M 0.40% 0.20% 0.20% -47.0B
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Mar 2.70% 2.20% 1.40%
12:30 USD Trade Balance Feb -45.8B -$44.0B -$46.3B
13:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Mar
-157.5B -222.5B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4450

Euro's current rally above previous resistance at 1.4489 signals recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 1.4545/50 (50% projection of 1.4152-1.4489 measuring from 1.4377) and possibly 1.4563 (1.618 times projection of 1.4152 to 1.4350 measuring from 1.4243) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.4600 and reckon 1.4625 would hold

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 121.15

Despite intra-day stronger-than-expected retreat to 120.16, as the single currency found good support there and has rebounded quickly, suggesting consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain to 122.40/50, however, break of 123.33 (yesterday's high) is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to 124.00 and possibly eventual upside target at 124.75 (1.236 times projection of 106.50 to 115.56 measuring from 113.55).

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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