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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Remains Weak Despite Solid Personal Income and Spending, Swissy Up on SNB Comments, Euro Up on CPIDollar edged lower in early US session but managed to pare some losses after upside surprise in personal income and spending report. Personal income rose 0.5% in March while spending rose 0.6%, both were above expectation. COre PCE deflator rose 0.1% mom, 0.9% yoy, inline with consensus. Headline PCE, though, rose less than expected by 1.8% yoy. Employment costs index rose 0.6% qoq in Q1. But after all, the greenback is still facing strong pressure as Swissy Franc, Australian dollar and gold make record high. Canadian dollar is stuck in range as GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.2% mom in February. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8693; (P) 0.8726; (R1) 0.8763; More. USD/CHF's down trend resumes by taking out 0.8670 today and reaches as low as 0.8644 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. Next. On the upside, above 0.8832 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery. |
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| Special Reports |
RBNZ Leaves OCR At 2.5%, Staying Dovish As Earthquake Aftermath RemainsAs widely expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%. We mentioned after the previous meeting (when the central bank lowered the policy rate by -50 bps) that the OCR would stay at current level for the rest of the year and this meeting reinforced our view. At the accompanying statement, the central bank explicitly mentioned that 'higher oil prices and the elevated level of the New Zealand dollar are both unwelcome' as they will have 'some dampening effect on economic activity'. Fed Signals No Plan To TightenThe April statement, inaugural press briefing and the downwardly revised growth outlook suggested that the Fed will not begin tightening this year. Indeed, policymakers signaled that the timing is uncertain and is dependent on evolution of the economy. Concerning QE2, the Fed said that it will 'complete purchases of $600B of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter'. At the press briefing, Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the central bank is 'going to continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasury and MBS' so that securities holdings 'will remain approximately constant'. The Fed also maintained the reference that 'exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
The Traders Expo provides a chance to take a productive step back from the trading screen and look at the overall markets from a broader perspective. Join your fellow traders at The Traders Expo Dallas and experience it for yourself. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No update on 29 April, next update on Monday 2 May Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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