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Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Recover as Risk Appetite RecedesDollar and yen strengthen mildly in Asian session today as risk appetite recedes a bit on a couple of factors. There are rumors that China will lift the capital adequacy ratio for large banks to as high as 11.8% for the year to guard against risks in the banking sector. Game maker Nintendo lowered earnings forecasts and sends stock mildly lower. There are also concerns on spreading of Middle-East unrest on violence in Syria. Gold's pullback to below 1500 level also helps dollar recover. Fed will start its two day meeting today and will announce rate decision and publish new projections tomorrow. The greenback might consolidate for a while before that but there is no change in the bearish outlook in dollar in general. Though, the technical outlook is yen is a bit tricky and we might yet see more rebound in yen in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 118.87; (P) 119.45; (R1) 119.87; More EUR/JPY's recovery was limited at 120.37 and weakens mildly. The failure to sustain above 4 hours 55 EMA and with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, turned negative, suggest that such recovery might be finished. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for the moment and deeper fall might now be seen towards 116.46 support again. But after all, as long as 115.53 support holds, we'd maintain the bullish view to expect rise from 106.57 to resume sooner or later. Above 120.37 will flip bias back to the upside for 123.31 and then 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. However, sustained break of 115.53 will dampen this view and will bring deeper decline through 113.54 support instead. |
| Special Reports |
Bernanke To Re-shape Thinking At The First FOMC Press BriefingThe April FOMC meeting will unlikely contain any surprise in monetary policies, i.e. the Fed funds rate will stay a 0-0.25% and the asset-buying program will be maintained at $600B with expiry in June. The focus is on the first post-meeting press briefing at which Chairman Ben Bernanke will attempt to shape market expectations on inflation and monetary outlook. The briefings will be held 4 times a year and are scheduled to coincide with the updates of economic forecasts. RBNZ To Stand Aside After Cutting In MarchThe RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged, after cutting it by -50 bps to 2.5% last month, at the April meeting. Economic indicators appeared to have gradually recovered from the earthquake in February. Yet, more evidence in coming months is needed to prove the situation has improved. Meanwhile, benign underlying inflation also bought time for the central bank to take a wait-and-see approach and leave the monetary stance unchanged. Governor Alan Bollard will also clarify his comments made last week on exchange rates. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4520Despite intra-day brief drop to 1.4494, as the single currency has rebounded again, suggesting the correction from last week's high of 1.4649 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen, however, break of yesterday's high at 1.4628 is needed to confirm and bring resumption of recent upmove for retest of said last week's high, then towards 1.4682 (50% projection of 1.4156-1.4548 measuring from 1.4486) Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 81.05Although dollar has retreated after intra-day brief bounce to 81.97 (just faltered below the Kijun-Sen) and one more fall to 81.25/30 cannot be ruled out, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 81.00/05 (61.8% projection of 85.53 to 82.19 measuring from 83.10) and reckon 80.89 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 76.25 to 85.53) would hold from here, bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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