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Daily Report: Dollar Soft in Tight Range, Remains VulnerableDollar remains soft in tight range against other major currencies. The post-FOMC selloff stalled yesterday but the greenback is still vulnerable to deeper decline. Overall market outlook is not favoring a rebound in the greenback yet. Risk appetite is still firm with DOW extending recent rally to close at 12763 overnight and is still in progress to 13000 level. Gold made another record high at 1538.8 yesterday and is heading towards 1600 psychological level. Though, crude oil continues to struggle around 113 level and thus, helps keep USD/CAD above recent low of 0.9453. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8851; (P) 0.8887; (R1) 0.8928; More WIth 0.8845 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside for further rally. Break of 0.8922 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, below 0.8845 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 0.8922. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later. |
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| Special Reports |
RBNZ Leaves OCR At 2.5%, Staying Dovish As Earthquake Aftermath RemainsAs widely expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%. We mentioned after the previous meeting (when the central bank lowered the policy rate by -50 bps) that the OCR would stay at current level for the rest of the year and this meeting reinforced our view. At the accompanying statement, the central bank explicitly mentioned that 'higher oil prices and the elevated level of the New Zealand dollar are both unwelcome' as they will have 'some dampening effect on economic activity'. Fed Signals No Plan To TightenThe April statement, inaugural press briefing and the downwardly revised growth outlook suggested that the Fed will not begin tightening this year. Indeed, policymakers signaled that the timing is uncertain and is dependent on evolution of the economy. Concerning QE2, the Fed said that it will 'complete purchases of $600B of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter'. At the press briefing, Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the central bank is 'going to continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasury and MBS' so that securities holdings 'will remain approximately constant'. The Fed also maintained the reference that 'exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period'. |
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.4785Despite intra-day retreat to 1.4776, as the single currency has rebounded after finding renewed buying interest there as suggested, retaining our bullishness for recent upmove to resume after consolidation, a break of intra-day resistance at 1.4882 would confirm this view and extend gain towards 1.4900/05 (1.236 times projection of 1.4494-1.4715 measuring from 1.4630) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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