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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Consolidates after Mixed Retail Sales, Vulnerable Against Euro and Swiss FrancDollar stays in tight range in early US session after mixed retail sales data. Headline sales rose 0.4% in March versus expectation of 0.5% but ex-auto sales rose 0.8% versus expectation of 0.7%. Commodities are consolidating with crude oil struggling around 106 while gold recovers to 1460. Risk aversion continues to recede with major European indices maintaining earlier gains while US stock futures point to higher open. We'd maintain that Euro and swissy would likely gain most in next round of dollar selloff after the current consolidations. The fate of Aussie and Loonie will depend on whether commodities could extend recent rise. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8914; (P) 0.8994; (R1) 0.9048; More. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and further fall should be seen to 0.8921 support first. Break will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664. On the upside, above 0.9104 minor resistance will dampen the immediate bearish view and bring more consolidation first. |
| Special Reports |
BOC Leaves Rates Unchanged. Raises Growth OutlookThe BOC left the overnight rate at 1% but delivered slightly more hawkish accompanying statement as domestic economic growth has been running faster than expected. The central bank revised higher its growth forecast for 2011 but downgraded that for 2012. Concerning inflation, policymakers viewed recent upward price pressures as only 'temporary' as driven 'recent sharp increases in energy prices and the ongoing boost from changes in provincial indirect taxes'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9060Dollar's near term sideways trading is expected to continue and although the recovery from yesterday's low at 0.8943 suggests mild upside bias is for retracement to 0.9049-59 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and previous support), reckon the upper Kumo (now at 0.9086) would hold and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend recent decline to 0.8900/10 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 121.15Although the single currency retreated to overnight low of 120.81, as euro found renewed buying interest there and has staged a rebound, retaining our view that the correction from 123.33 has possibly ended at 120.16 and consolidation with upside bias remains for test f 122.05, then to 122.40/50. Looking ahead, only break of said resistance at 123.33 (Monday's high) would confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to 124.00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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