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Mid-Day Report: Euro Rebounds on Strong CPI ReadingEuro rebounds strongly today after CPI flash estimate beat expectations and accelerated to 2.4% yoy in January, highest level in more than two years. Based on recent inflation rhetoric from ECB Trichet, the stronger than expected inflation reading triggered more speculation that ECB would normalize rates sooner than previously thought. CPI is now above ECB's target of "below 2%, close to 2%" for the second month in a row and there is no sign of moderation yet. Markets are expecting a possible hike in Q4 but ECB might pull ahead if inflation outlook worsens. Though, after all, EUR/USD's is still kept below 1.3757 recent high on concern of continuation of Egypt protest. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3547; (P) 1.3646 (R1) 1.3710; More. EUR/USD drew strong support from 4 hours 55 EMA and rebounds today but upside is still limited below 1.3757 resistance. Intraday bias is neutral and some more consolidations could still be seen. Below 1.3570 will bring another fall but after all, we'd expect strong support above 1.3245 and bring rally resumption. As discussed before, whole decline from 1.4281 should have finished with three waves down to 1.2873 already. Above 1.3757 should bring another rise through 1.4 psychological level to retest 1.4281 key resistance first. |
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RBA To Leave Rates Unchanged, Monitoring Impacts From FloodsThis week is an eventful one in Australia with the RBA meeting on Tuesday and the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. We expect policymakers to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% as inflation has stayed in the lower half of the RBA's target band and extensive flooding in Queensland has disrupted the economy. Near-term growth and inflation outlook will be revised lower while those for the medium- to long-term should remain strong. The next rate hike will most likely happen in 2Q11. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9480Dollar's near term sideways trading is expected to continue and only break of support at 0.9389 would confirm the decline from 0.9784 has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9350, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below support at 0.9323 and recent low at 0.9301 should hold from here. Trade Idea: AUD/USD –Hold short entered at 0.9980Despite this morning's brief fall to 0.9866, as aussie has rebounded in tandem with euro, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, as long as Friday's high at 0.9988 holds, bearishness remains for another retreat to said support. Looking ahead, only breach of support at 0.9832 would signal the correction from 0.9803 has ended at 1.0077 and bring resumption of the decline from 1.0257 top for retest of 0.9803, then 0.9750. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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