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Mid-Day Report: GBP, CAD, AUD Weaken on Data, Dollar Attempting ReboundMacro economic data drives much volatility in the markets today. Sterling is sharply lower after poor GDP data. Canadian dollar and, to a lesser extent, Australian dollar are lower after slower than expected consumer inflation data. On the other hand, dollar is trying to stage a rebound with help on selloff in crude oil and gold. Note that the dollar index is trying to draw support from key near term support zone of 77.8/78.0 and we might see stronger recovery if the FOMC announcement tomorrow provides something dollar-supportive. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5904; (P) 1.5960; (R1) 1.6053; More. GBP/USD's fall from 1.6057 resumes today by breaking 1.5838 support and reaches as low as 1.5750 so far. Intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 1.5838 minor resistance holds and deeper decline would now be seen towards 1.5664 support. Note that the steepness of today's fall dampens the original mildly bullish view. Break of 1.5664 will in turn indicate that rebound from 1.5343 is completed and will bring deeper fall to retest this support. Also, note that decisive break of 1.5296/5343 support zone will complete a head and shoulder top reversal pattern (ls: 1.5997, h: 1.6298; rs: 1.6057) and will have bearish implications. On the upside, break of 1.6057 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at best for the moment. |
| Special Reports |
Fed To Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged Despite Better Macroeconomic DataAt the January FOMC meeting, policymakers will very likely leave the Fed fund rate unchanged at 0-0.2% and maintain the asset-purchase program announced in November 2010 at $600B. While acknowledging improvements in recent economic outlook, the Fed's stance will remain cautious. In the accompanying statement, the central bank will reiterate that it 'anticipates a gradual return' to mandate-consistent levels of employment and inflation. |
| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 82.35Although the greenback fell marginally to 82.26 in part due to cross-buying Japanese yen especially versus pound, as cable has recovered from 82.26, we are keeping our view that consolidation with upside bias would be seen for another rebound to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 82.76), break there would signal retreat has ended, then test of resistance at 82.92 would follow. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 111.30As the single currency has eased after rising to 112.91 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and retracement to 111.65/70 is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 111.20/30 and bring another upmove later. A break of said resistance would extend recent upmove from 106.83 (2nd c leg bottom as well as wave B trough) to 113.50 and possibly towards 114.00. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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