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Daily Report: Dollar Soft on Commodities, Aussie Rebounds after RBADollar is back under pressure with the dollar index breaching last week's low of 77.60 to resume recent decline. Strong rally was seen in commodities on Egypt turmoil as the CRB index jumped 1.78% overnight, or 5.98 pts to close strongly at 341.42. WTI crude oil rose sharply to two year high and is staying firm above 92 level. Among major currencies, Sterling is the relatively stronger one as supported by BoE Weale's hawkish call for rate hike. On the other hand Australian dollar is the strongest currency today so far as supported by strong house price data and as RBA toned down the impact of flood to economy. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9896; (P) 0.9942; (R1) 1.0020; More AUD/USD rebounds strongly to as high as 1.0036 so far today buy after all, it's still staying in range of 0.9803 and 1.0075 and outlook remains unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more sideway trading might be seen. But another fall is still in favor as long as 1.0075 resistance holds. Break of 0.9803 support will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.0254 and will also affirm the case of medium term reversal. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to 0.9536 support for confirmation. On the upside, however, break of 1.0075 will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 1.0254 high instead. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Leaves Cash Rate Unchanged, Expects Limited Impacts From FloodingThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a second consecutive meeting after raising it for 7 times since October 2009. Policymakers appeared more optimistic towards the global economic outlook. Tightening bias remains and the central bank will probably hike interest rates again in 2Q11. Currently, the market has priced in a 16% chance the RBA will hike rates in June, up from +12% before the meeting. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 82.40As the greenback has fallen again after brief recovery yesterday, intra-day breach of yesterday's low at 81.77 signals recent fall from 83.70 is still in progress and may extend weakness to 81.50, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 81.10-20 and reckon support at 80.93 should hold, bring rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Stand asideAs the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally, suggesting a retest of last week's high at 1.3760 would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.3790/00 but near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3850 and risk has increased for a retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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