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Daily Report: Yen Pares Post Downgrade Losses, Dollar Steady ahead of GDP ReportJapanese yen pares some of the post S&P downgrade losses today, with help from risk aversion on broad based weakness in Asian equities. Data from Japan showed easing deflation with national core CPI edged up to -0.4% yoy in December. Unemployment rate also unexpectedly dropped to 4.9%. Nevertheless, household spending dropped -3.3% yoy while retail sales dropped -2.0%. The recovery in yen put USD/JPY and GBP/JPY back in familiar range. Though, EUR/JPY remains firm so far. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9401; (P) 0.9441; (R1) 0.9493; More. USD/CHF continues to lose downside momentum with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line. But still, fall from 0.9782 is expected to continue as long as 0.9520 minor resistance holds and should target a test on 0.9300 low. Break there will bring down trend resumption towards 0.9 psychological level. On the upside, above 0.9520 support turned resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 0.9686 resistance. Break there will revive the case that USD/CHF has bottomed out at 0.9300 and will bring stronger rally. |
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| Special Reports |
New Fed Delivers Old StanceThe most noticeable change in the January FOMC meeting was the unanimous vote for maintaining the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset-purchase program at $600B until June 2011. The situation was widely anticipated as Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who had dissented the accommodative monetary policy since the beginning of last year, was not a voting member this year. Despite the rotation of voting members, the accompanying statement was largely the same as the December one. While acknowledging slight improvements in the growth and inflation outlook policymakers remained concerned about the absence of a meaningful drop in unemployment. RBNZ Remained Upbeat In Outlook While Holding OCR UnchangedAs expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3% in January. Despite disappointment in some economic data (3Q10 GDP unexpectedly contracted while retail sales continued to struggle), the central bank appeared less dovish than we and the market had anticipated. That said, today's statement does not change our outlook on New Zealand and we retain the view that the central bank will not resume tightening until 2H11. |
| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6010Although the British pound retreated after yesterday's rise to 1.5991, a sustained breach below 1.5880 support is needed to signal the rebound from 1.5750 has possibly ended and bring further fall to 1.5840/45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5750 to 1.5991), however, only below there would confirm this view and bring test of minor support at 1.5769, then retest of 1.5750. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3640Despite yesterday's marginal rise to 1.3760, the subsequent retreat from there suggests consolidation would take place and below 1.3675/80 would bring retracement to previous support at 1.3636, however, reckon 1.3621 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3396 to 1.3760) would limit downside, bring another upmove. Above said resistance would extend recent upmove to 1.3790/00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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