Action Insight Daily Report 1-25-11

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Daily Report: Swissy Firm on Safe Haven Flow after Russia's Bomb Blast

Swiss Franc and, to a lesser extent, Euro are firm in relatively quiet markets today. The suicide bomb blast in Moscow's Domodedovo Airport overnight triggered some safe haven buying into the Swissy. Dollar is soft but stays in range against major currencies, except Euro and Swissy, getting some support from the slump in gold. Australian dollar weakens mildly after disappointing CPI report reinforced the view that RBA is in no rush to raise rates again. Yen is steady after BoJ left rates unchanged and raised 2011 inflation forecasts.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2893; (P) 1.2980; (R1) 1.3032; More

With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, a temporary top is at least formed in EUR/CHF at 1.3067. Intraday bias in turned neutral first. As noted before, choppy rebound from 1.2401 is viewed as a correction to fall from 1.3833 only. Break of 1.2773 minor support will indicate that such correction is finished and the larger down trend would be resuming for another low below 1.2401. On the upside, though, above 1.3067 will bring another rise towards 61.8% retracement of 1.3833 to 1.2401 at 1.3286 to extend the correction.

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Fed To Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged Despite Better Macroeconomic Data

At the January FOMC meeting, policymakers will very likely leave the Fed fund rate unchanged at 0-0.2% and maintain the asset-purchase program announced in November 2010 at $600B. While acknowledging improvements in recent economic outlook, the Fed's stance will remain cautious. In the accompanying statement, the central bank will reiterate that it 'anticipates a gradual return' to mandate-consistent levels of employment and inflation.

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2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast
  • Earthquake Reconstruction The Major Driver For NZ Growth In 2011 Read more...
  • Downside Risks To AUD Expected To Come Earlier Rather Than Later Read more...
  • Franc's Safe-Haven Status Remains In 2011, SNB To Tighten In Mid-Year Read more...
  • JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing Read more...
  • Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011 Read more...
  • Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower Read more...
  • US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus Read more...
Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index M/M Nov 0.30% -- 0.60%
0:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q4 0.40% 0.80% 0.70%
0:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q4 2.70% 3.00% 2.80%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q4 0.30% 0.70% 0.60%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q4 2.20% 2.60% 2.50%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q4 0.50% 0.70% 0.50%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q4 2.30% 2.50% 2.30%
5:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
7:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Dec -- 1.63
7:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Feb 5.4 5.4
9:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.50% 0.70%
9:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q4 A 2.60% 2.70%
9:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Nov 0.50% 0.60%
9:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Dec 20.0B 22.8B
12:00 CAD CPI M/M Dec 0.20% 0.10%
12:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Dec 2.50% 2.00%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Dec -0.20% 0.00%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Dec 1.60% 1.40%
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Nov -1.80% -0.80%
15:00 USD House Price Index M/M Nov 0.00% 0.70%
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Jan 54.3 52.5
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 82.35

Despite yesterday's fall from 82.92 to 82.30, if our view that a low had been formed at 81.85 last week is correct, downside would be limited and bring another rebound later. Above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 82.74 would signal retreat has ended, then test of said resistance at 82.92 would follow.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3550

As the single currency has retreated after faltering below yesterday's high at 1.3686, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and test of the flat ground Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3613) is likely, below would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3582) but renewed buying interest should emerge above yesterday's low at 1.3540 and bring another upmove.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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