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Mid-Day Report: Weale Joined Sentance as Hawk, Sterling Pares Loss after BoE MinutesSterling pared some of the post-GDP losses today after BoE minutes revealed that an additional member voted for a rate hike in January. Andrew Sentance called for gradual removal of policy accommodations since last June. This time, Sentance was joined by Martin Weale and both considered that "the continued elevated rate of inflation, which was forecast to persist, posed a significant risk to inflation expectations and hence to the medium term outlook for inflation." Meanwhile, for some of the other seven members who voted to leave rates unchanged, the decisive was "finely balanced". Nevertheless, some members feared that a rate hike in January would "case expectations of a relatively sharp tightening of monetary policy" and have a "detrimental impact on confidence and activity. Meanwhile, Adam Posen once again voted for expanding the asset purchase program by another GBP 50b. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5705; (P) 1.5861; (R1) 1.5971; More. GBP/USD's recovery from 1.5750 extends further today and at this point, intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen above 1.5750 temporary low. But after all, another fall remains mildly in favor as long as 1.6057 resistance holds and below 1.5750 will target 1.5664 structure support. Break there will indicate that rebound from 1.5343 is completed and will bring deeper fall to retest this support. Also, note that decisive break of 1.5296/5343 support zone will complete a head and shoulder top reversal pattern (ls: 1.5997, h: 1.6298; rs: 1.6057) and will have bearish implications. Nevertheless, before that, rebound from 1.5343 might still continue and above 1.6057 will target a test on 1.6298 high. |
| Special Reports |
Fed To Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged Despite Better Macroeconomic DataAt the January FOMC meeting, policymakers will very likely leave the Fed fund rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and maintain the asset-purchase program announced in November 2010 at $600B. While acknowledging improvements in recent economic outlook, the Fed's stance will remain cautious. In the accompanying statement, the central bank will reiterate that it 'anticipates a gradual return' to mandate-consistent levels of employment and inflation. |
| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9520Although dollar has retreated after intra-day rebound to 0.9464, break of yesterday's low at 0.9405 is needed to signal the decline from 0.9784 top has resumed and extend weakness to previous resistance at 0.9385, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9350 and risk from there has increased for a rebound later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD –Sell at 1.0030Although aussie has rebounded after retreating to 0.9888 yesterday and another test of 1.0023 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0077-84 (previous resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0257 to 0.9803) and bring another retreat later. Below support at 0.9832 would revive our bearishness and signal the correction from 0.9803 has ended at 1.0077 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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