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Daily Report: Dollar Soft after FOMC, Durables and Housing Data EyedDollar remains soft against Euro after Fed statement overnight failed to upgrade economic assessment despite strong data. EUR/USD continues to stay firm above around 1.37 level as supported by comments from Trichet on inflation. Nevertheless, the greenback is staying in tight range against other major currencies as some support was provided from the rebound in treasury yield over night, with 30 year yield closed near to 4.6%. Focus will turn to durable goods orders and pending home sales data today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9923; (P) 0.9951; (R1) 0.9967; More. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again. Current development still favors the case that rebound from 0.9836 is not over yet. Above 1.0029 will confirm this bullish case and target 1.0207 resistance next. Nevertheless, 0.9910 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.9836 and possibly below. |
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| Special Reports |
New Fed Delivers Old StanceThe most noticeable change in the January FOMC meeting was the unanimous vote for maintaining the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset-purchase program at $600B until June 2011. The situation was widely anticipated as Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who had dissented the accommodative monetary policy since the beginning of last year, was not a voting member this year. Despite the rotation of voting members, the accompanying statement was largely the same as the December one. While acknowledging slight improvements in the growth and inflation outlook policymakers remained concerned about the absence of a meaningful drop in unemployment. RBNZ Remained Upbeat In Outlook While Holding OCR UnchangedAs expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3% in January. Despite disappointment in some economic data (3Q10 GDP unexpectedly contracted while retail sales continued to struggle), the central bank appeared less dovish than we and the market had anticipated. That said, today's statement does not change our outlook on New Zealand and we retain the view that the central bank will not resume tightening until 2H11. |
| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6000Although yesterday's rise on dollar's broad-based weakness suggests the rebound from 1.5750 may extend gain to 1.6000, reckon resistance at 1.6017-18 would limit upside and bring retreat later. Below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5884) would bring test of the lower Kumo (now at 1.5843) but break there is needed to confirm top has been formed and bring further fall towards yesterday's low at 1.5769 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 82.50Despite yesterday's brief rise to 82.62, as the greenback met renewed selling pressure just below indicated previous resistance at 82.67, suggesting bearishness remains for a retest of 81.85, break there would confirm the decline from 83.70 top has resumed and extend weakness to 81.50 but reckon recent support at 80.93 would hold, bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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