Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-24-11

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Mildly Lower on Irish Politics

Euro fails to extend earlier strength and retreats today as the day goes on mild concern of political turmoil in Ireland. Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowan resigned as head of Fianna Fail party at the weekend. The Greens also pulled out of the ruling coalition even though they indicated support to crucial finance bill. The news so far has little impact on the expectation for the pace of austerity. However, it's seen as sign of deepening political problems in Ireland and gives markets some reason to take profits on Euro longs. In any case, the retreat is so far mild and there is no change in the near term bullish outlook in Euro against dollar.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3504; (P) 1.3564 (R1) 1.3681; More.

EUR/USD's mild retreat today suggests that a temporary top is in place at 1.3623 and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Some consolidations would be seen first. But after all, there is no change in the near term bullish outlook as long as 1.3245 support holds. That is, whole decline from 1.4281 has completed with three waves down to 1.2873 already. Break of 1.3623 will bring rise resumption to retest 1.4281 resistance.

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Fed To Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged Despite Better Macroeconomic Data

At the January FOMC meeting, policymakers will very likely leave the Fed fund rate unchanged at 0-0.2% and maintain the asset-purchase program announced in November 2010 at $600B. While acknowledging improvements in recent economic outlook, the Fed's stance will remain cautious. In the accompanying statement, the central bank will reiterate that it 'anticipates a gradual return' to mandate-consistent levels of employment and inflation.

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2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast
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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q4 2.70% 3.20% 2.20%
0:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q4 0.10% 0.50% 1.30%
8:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Jan 60.2 60.9 60.9 60.7
8:30 EUR German PMI Services Jan 60 59 58.3 59.2
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Jan 56.9 57.1 57.1
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Jan 55.2 54.3 54.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Nov 2.10% 2.10% 1.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Nov 19.90% 17.50% 14.80%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3505

Although euro's retreat after intra-day brief rise to 1.3648 in Asia suggests further consolidation below this resistance would take place and minor correction of recent rise has commenced, reckon renewed buying interest would emerge around 1.3500/05 and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance at 1.3648 would extend recent upmove to 1.3690/95

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 111.00

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after last week's rally, the breach of indicated 112.20-30 level (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 115.68 to 106.83) justifies our bullish view that recent upmove from 106.83 (2nd c leg bottom as well as wave B trough) is still in progress and further gain to 113.00 and possibly 113.50 would be seen.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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