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Daily Report: Dollar Recovery Short-Lived, Back Pressured ahead of FOMCDollar's recovery was relatively brief and is back under pressure as treasury yields dipped before FOMC rate decision and statement. 30 year yield is way off last week's high of 4.638 and closed at 4.470 yesterday and pushed USD/JPY back to 82 level. Sustained strength is also seen in EUR/USD which is now pressing 1.37 and sent dollar index back to 77.8. Commodity currencies, on the other hand, recover mildly as lifted by recovery in gold, which is back trading at 1333 after diving to as low as 1321.9 yesterday. | |
Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9376; (P) 0.9449; (R1) 0.9495; More. USD/CHF's fall from 0.9782 is still in progress and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper decline towards 0.9300 low. The failure to sustain above 55 days EMA argues that medium term fall from 1.1729 might not be over yet. Break of 0.9300 will bring down trend resumption towards 0.9 psychological level. On the upside, above 0.9521 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 0.9686 will revive the case that rebound from 0.9300 is not over and will flip bias back to the upside for 0.9782 and above. |
Special Reports |
Fed To Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged Despite Better Macroeconomic DataAt the January FOMC meeting, policymakers will very likely leave the Fed fund rate unchanged at 0-0.2% and maintain the asset-purchase program announced in November 2010 at $600B. While acknowledging improvements in recent economic outlook, the Fed's stance will remain cautious. In the accompanying statement, the central bank will reiterate that it 'anticipates a gradual return' to mandate-consistent levels of employment and inflation. |
2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
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Economic Indicators Update |
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Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9520As the greenback has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interest at 0.9523 yesterday, suggesting recent decline from 0.9784 top is still in progress and further weakness to 0.9400 and possibly previous resistance at 0.9385 would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9350 and risk from there has increased for a rebound later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5880As the British pound has recovered after yesterday's selloff to 1.5750, retaining our view that consolidation would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5881) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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