Action Insight Daily Report 1-26-11


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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Recovery Short-Lived, Back Pressured ahead of FOMC

Dollar's recovery was relatively brief and is back under pressure as treasury yields dipped before FOMC rate decision and statement. 30 year yield is way off last week's high of 4.638 and closed at 4.470 yesterday and pushed USD/JPY back to 82 level. Sustained strength is also seen in EUR/USD which is now pressing 1.37 and sent dollar index back to 77.8. Commodity currencies, on the other hand, recover mildly as lifted by recovery in gold, which is back trading at 1333 after diving to as low as 1321.9 yesterday.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9376; (P) 0.9449; (R1) 0.9495; More.

USD/CHF's fall from 0.9782 is still in progress and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for deeper decline towards 0.9300 low. The failure to sustain above 55 days EMA argues that medium term fall from 1.1729 might not be over yet. Break of 0.9300 will bring down trend resumption towards 0.9 psychological level. On the upside, above 0.9521 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 0.9686 will revive the case that rebound from 0.9300 is not over and will flip bias back to the upside for 0.9782 and above.

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Special Reports

Fed To Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged Despite Better Macroeconomic Data

At the January FOMC meeting, policymakers will very likely leave the Fed fund rate unchanged at 0-0.2% and maintain the asset-purchase program announced in November 2010 at $600B. While acknowledging improvements in recent economic outlook, the Fed's stance will remain cautious. In the accompanying statement, the central bank will reiterate that it 'anticipates a gradual return' to mandate-consistent levels of employment and inflation.

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2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast
  • Earthquake Reconstruction The Major Driver For NZ Growth In 2011 Read more...
  • Downside Risks To AUD Expected To Come Earlier Rather Than Later Read more...
  • Franc's Safe-Haven Status Remains In 2011, SNB To Tighten In Mid-Year Read more...
  • JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing Read more...
  • Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011 Read more...
  • Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower Read more...
  • US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus Read more...
Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Dec -1.30% -1.30% -1.10%
9:30 GBP BoE Minutes
-- --
15:00 USD New Home Sales Dec
300K 290K
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
0.9M 2.6M
19:15 USD FOMC Rate Decision
0.25% 0.25%
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision
3.00% 3.00%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9520

As the greenback has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interest at 0.9523 yesterday, suggesting recent decline from 0.9784 top is still in progress and further weakness to 0.9400 and possibly previous resistance at 0.9385 would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9350 and risk from there has increased for a rebound later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5880

As the British pound has recovered after yesterday's selloff to 1.5750, retaining our view that consolidation would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5881) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights




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