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Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Jumps on Strong Retail Sales, Euro Lifted by German IfoCanadian dollar rebound strongly in early US session after strong retail sales data. Headline sales jumped 1.3% in November, the sixth consecutive rise and the strongest gain since March 2010. Ex-auto sales rose 1.0% and both were much better than market expectations. USD/CAD dives sharply after the release and the development suggest that recent lot of 0.9836 might not be the bottom yet. We'd probably steeply fall in USD/CAD before the week closes. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9937; (P) 0.9983; (R1) 1.0019; More. USD/CAD's fall from 1.0029 accelerates in early US session and the break of 0.9933 minor support argues that recovery from 0.9836 is finished. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further fall would be seen to 0.9836 support and possibly below. Nevertheless, even in that case, we'd expect USD/CAD to continue to lose downside momentum and maintain bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Strong support should be seen at 61.8% projection of 1.0671 to 0.9979 from 1.0207 at 0.9779 to bring a sizeable rebound. On the upside, above 1.0029 will bring another rise to 1.0033 resistance first, and then 1.0207. |
| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF –Buy at 0.9590Despite intra-day rise to 0.9685 (same level as yesterday's high), the subsequent retreat after faltering below previous resistance at 0.9687 suggests further consolidation would be seen and weakness to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9689) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the lower Kumo (now at 0.9565) would hold, bring another rebound later. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9970Despite yesterday's rise to 1.0031, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 1.0035, suggesting the rebound from 0.9837 has possibly ended and consolidation with downside bias is seen, however, break of 0.9890 support is needed to add credence to this view and bring retest of said support at 0.9837, break would confirm downtrend has resumed in wave (iii) for weakness to 0.9800 first. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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