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Mid-Day Report: Yen Sold off after S&P Downgrade, Dollar Soft after Poor DataJapanese yen is sold off sharply today after S&P surprised the markets by cutting Japan's AA sovereign debt rating for the first time since 2002. After the cut, Japan's rating is now at AA-, the fourth highest level alongside with China. S&P said in a statement that "Japan's government debt ratios -- already among the highest for rated sovereigns -- will continue to rise further than we envisaged before the global economic recession hit the country and will peak only in the mid-2020s." Meanwhile, S&P said that the government "lacks a coherent strategy to address these negative aspects of the country's debt dynamics." |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3661; (P) 1.3692 (R1) 1.3742; More. EUR/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.3757 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside with 1.3539 minor support intact and further rise should be seen to 1.3785 resistance first. Break will target a retest on 1.4281 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.3539 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained above 1.3245 support and bring another rally. |
| Special Reports |
New Fed Delivers Old StanceThe most noticeable change in the January FOMC meeting was the unanimous vote for maintaining the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset-purchase program at $600B until June 2011. The situation was widely anticipated as Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who had dissented the accommodative monetary policy since the beginning of last year, was not a voting member this year. Despite the rotation of voting members, the accompanying statement was largely the same as the December one. While acknowledging slight improvements in the growth and inflation outlook policymakers remained concerned about the absence of a meaningful drop in unemployment. RBNZ Remained Upbeat In Outlook While Holding OCR UnchangedAs expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3% in January. Despite disappointment in some economic data (3Q10 GDP unexpectedly contracted while retail sales continued to struggle), the central bank appeared less dovish than we and the market had anticipated. That said, today's statement does not change our outlook on New Zealand and we retain the view that the central bank will not resume tightening until 2H11. |
| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9520Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.9389, lack of follow through selling on the break of 0.9400/05 support and current recovery suggest consolidation would take place and test of 0.9468 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to bring retracement to 0.9513-23 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and previous resistance) where renewed selling interest should emerge there, bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Buy at 0.8535Euro's retreat after yesterday's marginal rise to 0.8672 suggests consolidation below this level would continue and retracement to 0.8550 cannot be ruled out but renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.8535-40 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8330 to 0.8672) and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend the rise from 0.8285 for a stronger retracement of the decline from 0.8941 to 0.8690 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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