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Mid-Day Report: Dollat Stuck in Range after Q4 GDPDollar continues to stay in tight range in early US session and has little reactions to Q4 GDP data. The US economy grew at annualized rate of 3.3% in Q4, below expectation of 3.5% but still solid. Price index, though, rose a mere 0.3% comparing to expectation of 1.7%. More notable move was found in the Japanese yen earlier today, which rebounded strongly on exporter demand. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 82.22; (P) 82.71; (R1) 83.41; More. USD/JPY's sharply fall today dampens the bullish case and turns intraday bias neutral again. On the downside, below 81.84 minor support will bring resumption of fall from 83.67 and target 80.93 support next. On the upside, above 83.19 will turn bias back to the upside for 83.67 and then 84.49. |
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| Special Reports |
New Fed Delivers Old StanceThe most noticeable change in the January FOMC meeting was the unanimous vote for maintaining the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset-purchase program at $600B until June 2011. The situation was widely anticipated as Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who had dissented the accommodative monetary policy since the beginning of last year, was not a voting member this year. Despite the rotation of voting members, the accompanying statement was largely the same as the December one. While acknowledging slight improvements in the growth and inflation outlook policymakers remained concerned about the absence of a meaningful drop in unemployment. RBNZ Remained Upbeat In Outlook While Holding OCR UnchangedAs expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3% in January. Despite disappointment in some economic data (3Q10 GDP unexpectedly contracted while retail sales continued to struggle), the central bank appeared less dovish than we and the market had anticipated. That said, today's statement does not change our outlook on New Zealand and we retain the view that the central bank will not resume tightening until 2H11. |
| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 111.85Although the British pound retreated after yesterday's rise to 1.5991, a sustained breach below 1.5880 support is needed to signal the rebound from 1.5750 has possibly ended and bring further fall to 1.5840/45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5750 to 1.5991), however, only below there would confirm this view and bring test of minor support at 1.5769, then retest of 1.5750. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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