Positive news that UK economy is continuing to grow and create jobs


Link to ForexLive

UK Chancellor Osborne: Positive news that UK economy is continuing to grow and create jobs

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Abandoning fiscal plan now would only risk growth UK seen as a safe-haven because Govt took tough decisions

Update: Special Factors Cut Quarterly UK Q2 GDP By 0.5PP

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–Adds Comments From National Statistics Economist to 0830 GMT Version –Q2 GDP +0.2% q/q; +0.7% y/y; –Q2 GDP median forecast +0.2% q/q; +0.8% y/y LONDON (MNI) – Quarterly economic growth slowed in the second quarter as the impact of the Royal Wedding and the Japanese Tsunami hit output, figures released by National Statistics showed Tuesday. [...]

That took the wind out of the EUR/GBP..

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The cross collapsed from 0.8880 to 0.8831 effectively erasing the morning’s gains in Europe and Asia following the GDP release. .Asian low of 0.8827 should hold out some support . EUR/GBP’s at 0.8839

UK Analysis: Special Factors Cut Quarterly Q2 GDP By 0.5PP

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–Q2 GDP +0.2% q/q; +0.7% y/y; –Q2 GDP median forecast +0.2% q/q; +0.8% y/y LONDON (MNI) – Quarterly economic growth slowed in the second quarter as the impact of the Royal Wedding and the Japanese Tsunami hit output, figures released by National Statistics showed Tuesday. Gross domestic product rose by 0.2% on the quarter and [...]

UK DATA: Q2 GDP +0.2% q/q; +0.7% y/y;…………….

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UK DATA: Q2 GDP +0.2% q/q; +0.7% y/y; –Q2 GDP median forecast +0.2% q/q; +0.8% y/y ———————————————————————— Quarterly economic growth slowed in the second quarter as the impact of the Royal Wedding and the Japanese Tsunami hit output, figures released by National Statistics showed Tuesday. National Statistics said these special factors could have knocked as [...]

UK Q2 prelim GDP +o.2q/q, +0.7% y/y

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vs median forecast +o.2% q/q and +o.8% y/y Better than the doomer and gloomers forecasted and cable’s jumped up 70 odd pips on it, although the number’s not a good one. Guess people were positioned short ahead of it, Cable’s around 1.6405

Cable steady ahead of the GDP

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Around 1.6330/40 ahead of the data but it’s lagged the euro this morning as EUR/GBP marches higher. Market consensus for the Q2 GDP is around +0.2% q/q, but there are a number of shops looking for a figure of around -0.2% as i mentioned yesterday. Tin hats on for the release in 5mins

BOE’s Weale: UK Faces Risk of Double-Dip Recession – Press

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FRANKFURT (MNI) – Bank of England MPC member Martin Weale sees a risk that the UK could slip back into recession, according to an interview published Tuesday by the German business daily Handelsblatt. “It would be naive to say that this risk does not exist,” in light of past experience, Weale said. This morning, the [...]

Nearby option expiries..

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For the 1000 NY cut today: EUR/USD: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4430, 1.4450 USD/JPY: 77.75 , 78.10. 78.75 AUD/USD: 1.0900 USD/CAD: 0.9540 Barriers: USD/JPY : 77.75 (supposedly large), AUD/USD 1.0950

Some CDS updates…

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Ireland 5 yr down 22 bps to 880 Spain down 11 bps to 324 Italy down 17 bps to 266

Noyer:ECB Remains in a State of Very Strong Vigilance – Press

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FRANKFURT (MNI) – ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer said the central bank remains in a state of “very strong vigilance”, according to an interview published Tuesday by the Financial Times Deutschland. In a broad-ranging interview, Noyer reminded that the ECB never precommits to a defined policy. He explained the July interest rate hike by [...]

BOE’s Weale: Naive to say there is no risk of UK falling back into recession

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Sees no danger of british public debt situation worsening BOE forecasts show risk of a double dip recession in the UK, perhaps in the winter Urges rate rise off 0.25% to tackle inflation concern, would have only limited impact on demand Cable remaining subdued on the comment with EUR/GBP holding firm around the 0.8870 level

EUR/USD stumbling around 1.4520

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We’ve been up to 1.4523 , but a friend did comment on a 61.8 % retracement fibonacci level at 1.4519 of the move from 1.4940 to 1.3838 for what it’s worth… Also, as mentioned earlier, seems there’s sovereign interest to sell towards the level as well as some german names i’m now being told. Euro’s [...]

Analysis: Japan Keeps Markets Guessing About Intervention

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By Shigeo Kodama and Max Sato TOKYO (MNI) – For Japan’s policymakers, it’s best to keep investors guessing whether Tokyo will intervene to stem a rapid rise in the yen, since there is little they can do to reverse a trend sparked by the U.S. debt ceiling and European sovereign crises. The Ministry of Finance [...]

Asian Sovereign sighted on the offer in EUR/USD around 1.4510/15

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Don’t know which one unfortunately

1 down, 2 to go….

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USD/CHF barrier at 0.8000 was taken out to a low of 0.7997 on the EBS trading system apparently. Of course it bounced straight away to 0.8018 , but looks like the swiss strength is still very much the vogue this morning, pending some outcome from the US squabbling..

FRANCE DATA: July consumer morale 86; June 83……..

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FRANCE DATA: July consumer morale 86; June 83 – Above expected; MNI analysts survey median forecast 82 – Buying-propensity up four points – Future inflation worries down four points – Jobless fears up 10 points – For more information, please see MNI Mainwire

FRANCE DATA: 2Q sa housing starts -1.9% q/q; nsa y/y.

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FRANCE DATA: 2Q sa housing starts -1.9% q/q; nsa +13.4% y/y - 2Q sa housing permits +2.2% q/q, nsa +11.7% y/y

Barrier updates….

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For those who are aware. what i’ve hard so far is barriers at 0.8000 USD/CHF (currently under threat) 1.0950 AUD/USD (closing in on) 77.75 USD/JPY Any more and i’ll let you know

China SAFE says firms unwilling to hold FX due to Yuan appreciation expectations

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