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Daily Report: USD/CHF Tumbles to Record Low Whilst Euro Surges above 1.45 on Lack of Progress in U.S. Debt TalksThe greenback continued to fall and hit a record low versus the Swiss franc in Asia, also fell to a 4-month low against the Japanese yen on ongoing worries about the U.S. debt negotiations, investors still don't see any sign of immediate breakthrough in the debt talks in U.S. even though President Barack Obama was calling again for compromise. Comments from President Obama and Speaker Boehner did very little help to the dollar as they just repeated themselves by calling on Republican and Democratic leaders to reach a fair compromise on debt ceiling increase in order to avoid a 'reckless and irresponsible' national default, their remarks were interpreted as a sign that there are lack of progress in the negotiations. USD/JPY slipped to a 4-month low of 77.88 (78.00 barrier was tripped) in Tokyo before rebounding quickly after finding decent bids there (rumored to be Japanese Postal Savings – Yucho for protection of 77.75-80 barriers). |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4329; (P) 1.4372 (R1) 1.4420; More. EUR/USD's rise from 1.3837 resumes by taking out 1.4437 and reaches as high as 1.4509 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.4577 resistance. As noted before, decisive break there will indicate that correction pattern from 1.4939 has completed with three waves down to 1.3837. In such case, the larger up trend is likely resuming for 1.5 and beyond. On the downside, below 1.4323 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But we'll stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4014 support holds. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ To Leave OCR Unchanged At 2.5%, Acknowledge Stronger-Than-Expected Domestic DevelopmentsIt's almost certain that the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in July. While domestic economic developments have improved significantly since the last meeting, risks that global economic and financial conditions will surprise to the downside are still high. Meanwhile, strength in New Zealand dollar has been providing some tightening effects, thus reducing the urgency of an official rate hike. That being said, the more likely timing for an increase in interest rate would be in 4Q11. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4440Euro’s intra-day rally above last week’s high of 1.4440 signals recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 1.4535/40 (50% projection of 1.4015-1.4440 measuring from 1.4324) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.4580/87 (previous resistance and 61.8% projection) and reckon 1.4600 would hold from there, risk from there increased for a minor correction later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.55Despite intra-day brief but sharp bounce from 4-month low of 77.88 to 78.75, as the greenback has retreated after failing to close above the Ichimoku cloud top on an hourly basis, suggesting near term downside risk remains for recent downtrend to extend one more fall towards 77.50/55, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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