Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-18-11

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Remains Weak as EU Leaders Called for Second Emergency Meeting on Greece Bailout

The single currency extended intra-day decline to as low as 1.4015 in part due to rising concerns over eurozone debt crisis when Europe leaders called for another emergency meeting this Thursday to discuss second bailout package for Greece, investors are still not convinced that the EU officials are able to resolve the debt problem in the near future. Both Italian and Spanish 10-year bond yields rallied on risk of debt crisis spreading across Europe from Portugal and Greece to Italy and Spain. Having said that, euro found decent demand from Middle East names above 1.4000 and has recovered in New York morning.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 78.90; (P) 79.08; (R1) 79.28; More.

USD/JPY continues to stay in familiar range above 78.46 temporary and intraday bias remains neutral. Some more sideway trading could be seen but upside is expected to be limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 79.76) and bring fall resumption. Below 78.46 will resume the whole decline from 85.51 and should target 100% projection of 85.51 to 79.56 from 82.22 at 76.27 and then 75.98 low.

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pecial Reports

BOC To Leave Rates Unchanged Despite Narrowing Output Gap

While Canada's economy has shown some positive signs recently, the BOC would not hurry for a rate hike this month given the uncertainties in the global economic environment. While policymakers will likely reiterate the comment that 'some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will be eventually withdrawn', an actual increase in interest rate may not arrive until 4Q11.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q2 1.00% 0.80% 0.80%
22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q2 5.30% 5.10% 4.50%
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Jul -1.60%
0.60%
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) May 15.4B 7.41B 8.220B
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows May 23.6B 48.4B 30.6B
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 15 15 13
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8200

Dollar’s rebound after intra-day brief but sharp fall to fresh record low of 0.8034 suggests further consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to 0.8200-06 (previous resistance as well as current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later. Having said that, break of 0.8034 is needed to extend downtrend to said psychological support at 0.8000

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 111.70

Despite last week’s rebound to 112.93, the subsequent retreat suggest the rebound from 109.58 has possibly ended there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 110.00, however, break of said support at 109.58 is needed to extend the 2nd c leg of B from 123.33 to 109.00 and possibly towards 108.50 which is likely to hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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